#FedRateWatch
Honestly, I’m looking at this FOMC from a trader’s perspective, not just trying to guess whether the Fed will hike or not.
With August core CPI coming in at 0.3% MoM and the market pricing around a 90% probability of a 25bp hike, I think the bigger question is what the Fed says after the decision. A 25bp hike itself may already be priced in, so the real volatility could come from Powell’s tone and the future rate path.
For me, I’ll be watching liquidity first, then imbalance and market structure. If BTC, gold or tech stocks sweep an important liquidity level and then show strong displacement, that’s where I’ll look for confirmation rather than blindly buying or selling the news.
If the Fed turns more hawkish than expected, I’d expect BTC and tech stocks to face selling pressure, while gold could also initially drop due to higher yields and a stronger dollar. But if the hike is already fully priced in and Powell sounds less aggressive, we could see the opposite: short squeezes, BTC recovery and gold pushing higher.
I’m not interested in predicting the exact candle. I’ll let the market take liquidity first and then trade the reaction.
FOMC = volatility. My plan = wait for liquidity → confirmation → entry.
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