September FOMC: Is a Rate Hike Inevitable?
Core CPI +0.3% in August changed everything. Markets now price ~90% chance of a 25bps hike tomorrow to 3.75%-4.00%. First hike since July 2023.
I don't think it's an isolated case. Fed Chair Warsh is hawkish and with oil at $100 and strong jobs data, price stability is the priority.
Impact if hike:
→ BTC / Tech stocks : Bearish short-term
→ Gold : Bullish
→ If Fed holds: Instant crypto rally
How I'm trading it with small capital:
No leverage before announcement. Waiting for Sep 16, 2pm EDT decision + Warsh press conference. Will buy Spot on dip if hawkish.
Do you expect a one-off hike or start of a longer tightening cycle?
#FedRateWatch
Core CPI +0.3% in August changed everything. Markets now price ~90% chance of a 25bps hike tomorrow to 3.75%-4.00%. First hike since July 2023.
I don't think it's an isolated case. Fed Chair Warsh is hawkish and with oil at $100 and strong jobs data, price stability is the priority.
Impact if hike:
→ BTC / Tech stocks : Bearish short-term
→ Gold : Bullish
→ If Fed holds: Instant crypto rally
How I'm trading it with small capital:
No leverage before announcement. Waiting for Sep 16, 2pm EDT decision + Warsh press conference. Will buy Spot on dip if hawkish.
Do you expect a one-off hike or start of a longer tightening cycle?
#FedRateWatch
