The market needs the REAL OUTCOME, not another week of 30% odds and headlines!

32% is still "probably not in 2026."

So, my answer to the question "Can Clarity beat a Fed hike for $BTC?" is: No, not this week, definitely.

To compare, a Fed hike is like 90% priced and hits in 48 hours. Clarity is still a 30% legislative long shot that does NOT become law on the same calendar.

A 25 bp hike is a liquidity event. Bitcoin has already digested most of it by holding the high $70k.

Clarity is a structural event. It only beats the hike if it actually passes, not if the odds tick from 17% to 32%.

If the bill dies today, the hike wins - obviously.

If Clarity was voted to be passed, it could outweigh one hike over the following weeks because the regulatory premium is larger than 25 basis points.

Bottom line: Until the vote is counted, the hike is the more certain.