$BTC has two major U.S. catalysts this week, but they are no longer equal coin flips.
The CLARITY Act is back in play after Senate Republicans released a revised draft with 126 changes, including tougher ethics provisions designed to address concerns over political crypto conflicts.
Trump has accepted much of the new ethics framework, but the bill still needs 60 votes to advance. Prediction markets currently put the probability of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 at only around 31%.
The Fed is the more immediate risk.
Markets now price roughly an 87–90% probability of a 25bp rate hike this week after stronger inflation data. That is a major shift from the near-50/50 pricing seen earlier this month.
For Bitcoin, monetary policy matters more in the short term. CLARITY could improve the long-term regulatory environment for U.S. crypto, but a Fed hike directly affects liquidity, Treasury yields, the dollar and risk appetite.
Even a positive CLARITY development would not automatically offset tighter monetary policy.
Tuesday puts regulation in focus. Wednesday puts liquidity in focus.
For BTC, the Fed is the bigger immediate catalyst.
#Bitcoin #Macro
The CLARITY Act is back in play after Senate Republicans released a revised draft with 126 changes, including tougher ethics provisions designed to address concerns over political crypto conflicts.
Trump has accepted much of the new ethics framework, but the bill still needs 60 votes to advance. Prediction markets currently put the probability of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 at only around 31%.
The Fed is the more immediate risk.
Markets now price roughly an 87–90% probability of a 25bp rate hike this week after stronger inflation data. That is a major shift from the near-50/50 pricing seen earlier this month.
For Bitcoin, monetary policy matters more in the short term. CLARITY could improve the long-term regulatory environment for U.S. crypto, but a Fed hike directly affects liquidity, Treasury yields, the dollar and risk appetite.
Even a positive CLARITY development would not automatically offset tighter monetary policy.
Tuesday puts regulation in focus. Wednesday puts liquidity in focus.
For BTC, the Fed is the bigger immediate catalyst.
#Bitcoin #Macro