Fed decision is Wednesday. A rate hike is already priced in.
Odds of a hike are about 80%. Big banks expect it. Goldman Sachs just flipped from hold to hike.
Markets do not move on the decision itself. They move on the surprise.
If the Fed hikes as expected, the reaction may be muted.
If it holds, that is a surprise. Stocks and crypto usually rally, and the dollar weakens.
A hold 1.5 months before midterms may look political. Then long-term yields can rise, and risk assets may not rally.
In short: an expected hike is quiet. A surprise hold is a sharp market move.
$BTC
Odds of a hike are about 80%. Big banks expect it. Goldman Sachs just flipped from hold to hike.
Markets do not move on the decision itself. They move on the surprise.
If the Fed hikes as expected, the reaction may be muted.
If it holds, that is a surprise. Stocks and crypto usually rally, and the dollar weakens.
A hold 1.5 months before midterms may look political. Then long-term yields can rise, and risk assets may not rally.
In short: an expected hike is quiet. A surprise hold is a sharp market move.
$BTC
