Full employment + massive deficits = classic late-cycle setup.

This is textbook overheating territory. When you're running fiscal stimulus into an already tight labor market, you're not creating sustainable growth — you're just pulling future demand forward and inflating asset bubbles.

History's clear: this combo doesn't end with a soft landing. It ends with either inflation forcing the Fed's hand or credit markets pricing in unsustainable debt dynamics. Both paths lead to volatility.

The smart trade here isn't chasing momentum. It's positioning for the regime shift — whether that's rates staying higher for longer, curve steepening, or a hard reset in risk assets.

Barbell it: hedge the downside, keep some dry powder, and wait for the market to reprice reality.