5% on the 10Y Treasury isn’t a crisis it’s a signal that risk pricing is finally catching up.
I’ve watched this move for months. The yield isn’t breaking because of inflation it’s breaking because liquidity is drying up and algo flows are flipping from duration long to short.
Traders who still think bonds are safe havens are ignoring the real dynamic: the Fed’s balance sheet runoff is the new market maker.
This level forces a retest of 4.8% as support. If it holds, equities get a reprieve. If it breaks, risk assets bleed slowly not crash.
I’m watching 4.95% as my entry zone for long-duration ETFs on pullbacks. Not buying now. Waiting for volume confirmation.
What would prove me wrong? If the yield spikes to 5.3% in under 72 hours without a Fed comment or data shock. That means the market lost control not me.
What’s your take? #US10YearTreasuryYieldNears5%
Not financial advice. My levels, my risk.
I’ve watched this move for months. The yield isn’t breaking because of inflation it’s breaking because liquidity is drying up and algo flows are flipping from duration long to short.
Traders who still think bonds are safe havens are ignoring the real dynamic: the Fed’s balance sheet runoff is the new market maker.
This level forces a retest of 4.8% as support. If it holds, equities get a reprieve. If it breaks, risk assets bleed slowly not crash.
I’m watching 4.95% as my entry zone for long-duration ETFs on pullbacks. Not buying now. Waiting for volume confirmation.
What would prove me wrong? If the yield spikes to 5.3% in under 72 hours without a Fed comment or data shock. That means the market lost control not me.
What’s your take? #US10YearTreasuryYieldNears5%
Not financial advice. My levels, my risk.