CPI will not trigger a rate hike this cycle.
The market priced in softer inflation weeks ago. Nonfarm payrolls beat didn’t change the trend it just confirmed labor strength isn’t enough to override disinflation. Traders aren’t betting on Fed tightening. They’re betting on June cuts. My screener shows 78% of long-term USD pairs are net short. That’s the real signal.
I’m watching the 10-year yield at 4.3%. If it breaks 4.5% on CPI day, I’ll consider a short-term USD long. If not, I stay flat.
What would prove me wrong? A CPI print above 3.8% YoY and a Fed chair who says “we’re not done.”
What’s your take? #CPIWatch
Not financial advice. My levels, my risk.
The market priced in softer inflation weeks ago. Nonfarm payrolls beat didn’t change the trend it just confirmed labor strength isn’t enough to override disinflation. Traders aren’t betting on Fed tightening. They’re betting on June cuts. My screener shows 78% of long-term USD pairs are net short. That’s the real signal.
I’m watching the 10-year yield at 4.3%. If it breaks 4.5% on CPI day, I’ll consider a short-term USD long. If not, I stay flat.
What would prove me wrong? A CPI print above 3.8% YoY and a Fed chair who says “we’re not done.”
What’s your take? #CPIWatch
Not financial advice. My levels, my risk.