#CPIWatch
The Fed just got a harder decision.
First came the jobs report.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls jumped 162K vs 56K expected, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%. That was already enough to make markets rethink the odds of another Fed hike.
Then CPI arrived.
August inflation rose 0.4% MoM and stayed at 3.4% YoY.
But the number I’m paying more attention to is Core CPI: +0.3% MoM.
That may look small, but it came in stronger than expected and keeps inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target.
And the market noticed.
Rate-hike expectations jumped sharply after the CPI release, with some market measures putting the probability of a September hike above 80%.
My take: cautious bearish for risk assets.
But here’s the interesting part:
A rate hike does not automatically mean stocks or gold must fall.
The bigger question is whether the hike is already priced in.
That’s what I’ll be watching next price reaction, not just headlines.
If the Fed hikes, does the market sell the news…
or surprise everyone?
What’s your view: Hike or Hold? Bullish or Bearish? $XAU $XAUT
The Fed just got a harder decision.
First came the jobs report.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls jumped 162K vs 56K expected, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%. That was already enough to make markets rethink the odds of another Fed hike.
Then CPI arrived.
August inflation rose 0.4% MoM and stayed at 3.4% YoY.
But the number I’m paying more attention to is Core CPI: +0.3% MoM.
That may look small, but it came in stronger than expected and keeps inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target.
And the market noticed.
Rate-hike expectations jumped sharply after the CPI release, with some market measures putting the probability of a September hike above 80%.
My take: cautious bearish for risk assets.
But here’s the interesting part:
A rate hike does not automatically mean stocks or gold must fall.
The bigger question is whether the hike is already priced in.
That’s what I’ll be watching next price reaction, not just headlines.
If the Fed hikes, does the market sell the news…
or surprise everyone?
What’s your view: Hike or Hold? Bullish or Bearish? $XAU $XAUT
