$ETH
The market has sorted out a proper clear baseline framework for next week’s FOMC meeting
Base case: A single rate hike to keep inflation expectations under control, but with no commitment to continuous tightening, whilst the economy undergoes a non-recessive cooldown
The current cross-asset picture aligns rather nicely with this:
2-year yields holding firm: Pricing in that single remaining rate hike
10-year and 30-year yields easing off: Taking off the table any pricing for prolonged tightening or long-term runaway inflation
The US dollar staying soft: Reflecting the lack of a higher-for-longer policy trajectory
Growth stocks outperforming: Finding support as long-term discount rates drift lower
Defensive sectors failing to rally: Showing that a recession consensus hasn’t taken hold
Mixed performance across financials, consumer, and industrials: Indicating that a full soft landing isn’t quite sorted yet
VIX ticking down and HYG remaining stable: Systemic risk stays well contained for now
As it stands, the FOMC needs to decide which way the market breaks from this middle ground
$BTC
$SOL
#CPIWatch
The market has sorted out a proper clear baseline framework for next week’s FOMC meeting
Base case: A single rate hike to keep inflation expectations under control, but with no commitment to continuous tightening, whilst the economy undergoes a non-recessive cooldown
The current cross-asset picture aligns rather nicely with this:
2-year yields holding firm: Pricing in that single remaining rate hike
10-year and 30-year yields easing off: Taking off the table any pricing for prolonged tightening or long-term runaway inflation
The US dollar staying soft: Reflecting the lack of a higher-for-longer policy trajectory
Growth stocks outperforming: Finding support as long-term discount rates drift lower
Defensive sectors failing to rally: Showing that a recession consensus hasn’t taken hold
Mixed performance across financials, consumer, and industrials: Indicating that a full soft landing isn’t quite sorted yet
VIX ticking down and HYG remaining stable: Systemic risk stays well contained for now
As it stands, the FOMC needs to decide which way the market breaks from this middle ground
$BTC
$SOL
#CPIWatch
