162k jobs. They wanted 56k. That’s not a beat, that’s the labor market flipping the table.
And now CPI is about to hit in a few minutes. That’s the one that actually matters. Payrolls just made it harder for the Fed to sit still. They didn’t make the hike automatic.
I’m not buying the “they hike no matter what” take. One hot jobs print after a sloppy July isn’t enough on its own. If core CPI stays around 0.2%, they can hold and still sound tough. If it comes in closer to 0.3%, they’re hiking 25bps next week and pretending they had no choice. Headline can jump on gas and I don’t care. Core is the only number Warsh is going to look at twice.
Lean: hold, but it’s close. Markets at ~70% for a hike feel a little ahead of themselves unless this print is messy.
Near term I’m cautious. A hike doesn’t kill the market. It just tells you this Fed is done waiting for inflation to behave. That’s enough to knock risk around for a bit.
Gold already ate it. Mid 4,300s after hanging closer to 4,400–4,500. Still holding mine. Not adding into the print. Soft CPI, I’ll buy the bounce. Hot CPI, I wait for the next dip and then add.
Labor’s fine. Inflation’s the problem. We’re about to find out if next week is just talk or an actual hike.
#CPIWatch $XAU
And now CPI is about to hit in a few minutes. That’s the one that actually matters. Payrolls just made it harder for the Fed to sit still. They didn’t make the hike automatic.
I’m not buying the “they hike no matter what” take. One hot jobs print after a sloppy July isn’t enough on its own. If core CPI stays around 0.2%, they can hold and still sound tough. If it comes in closer to 0.3%, they’re hiking 25bps next week and pretending they had no choice. Headline can jump on gas and I don’t care. Core is the only number Warsh is going to look at twice.
Lean: hold, but it’s close. Markets at ~70% for a hike feel a little ahead of themselves unless this print is messy.
Near term I’m cautious. A hike doesn’t kill the market. It just tells you this Fed is done waiting for inflation to behave. That’s enough to knock risk around for a bit.
Gold already ate it. Mid 4,300s after hanging closer to 4,400–4,500. Still holding mine. Not adding into the print. Soft CPI, I’ll buy the bounce. Hot CPI, I wait for the next dip and then add.
Labor’s fine. Inflation’s the problem. We’re about to find out if next week is just talk or an actual hike.
#CPIWatch $XAU