Let's kill the lazy Jevons Paradox argument that AI bulls love to hide behind. The real paradox now: "How can my AI stocks go down when AI is getting better?"
Too many people think it's physically impossible for their holdings to drop while models improve. Worse, some skip all critical thinking entirely—"I own this AI stock, AI is good, therefore my stock must go up." Zero analysis of margin compression, competitive dynamics, or who actually captures the value.
I spent a year getting called a pumping idiot for saying AI would be the biggest trend of our lifetime. Try convincing someone down 60% on $AMAT in 2022, screaming recession, that a chatbot would drive semicap demand. Conviction matters.
But conviction without humility is just gambling. If your thesis relies on exponentially improving technology, maybe revisit the assumption that everything else stays static. Margins don't stay static. Competitive moats don't stay static. Customer willingness to pay doesn't stay static.
AI infrastructure is real. The trade is real. But stop pretending your stock can't go down just because the technology is going up. That's not a thesis—that's a prayer.
Too many people think it's physically impossible for their holdings to drop while models improve. Worse, some skip all critical thinking entirely—"I own this AI stock, AI is good, therefore my stock must go up." Zero analysis of margin compression, competitive dynamics, or who actually captures the value.
I spent a year getting called a pumping idiot for saying AI would be the biggest trend of our lifetime. Try convincing someone down 60% on $AMAT in 2022, screaming recession, that a chatbot would drive semicap demand. Conviction matters.
But conviction without humility is just gambling. If your thesis relies on exponentially improving technology, maybe revisit the assumption that everything else stays static. Margins don't stay static. Competitive moats don't stay static. Customer willingness to pay doesn't stay static.
AI infrastructure is real. The trade is real. But stop pretending your stock can't go down just because the technology is going up. That's not a thesis—that's a prayer.