$BTC Weekly Recap: Levels, ETF Flows and the Fed
Thursday was the good day. Fed governor Waller said he would back holding rates steady this month, and hike odds dropped from 63% to 52% overnight. $BTC broke $80K and ran all the way to $82,240, the highest we've seen since May. $456M in shorts got wiped out on the way up. The ETFs bought $730M that day, their biggest day since January.
Friday killed it. The August jobs report came in at 162,000 when everyone expected 53,000. When hiring is that strong, the Fed has room to raise rates, so bond yields jumped and money moved out of crypto. #BTC dropped from $81,335 to $79,654 in one five minute candle and kept going to $78,649. Everything Thursday gave us was gone in a day.
The levels I'm watching:
> $82,240: this week's top, where the breakout failed
> $80,000: we took it Thursday, lost it Friday
> $79,908: where we are now
> $78,649: first support
> $75,000: below this the trend is done
Here's the interesting part. The ETFs added around $980M this week (+12.69K BTC) and BTC still ended flat. The people who bought above $80,000 on Thursday didn't sell into Friday's drop. Total ETF assets are at $99.60B now, about to cross $100B for the first time.
Into the Fed meeting on the 16th, it comes down to two things.
Get $80,000 back and Friday was just a shakeout, nothing more.
Lose $78,649 and then $75,000 and the market is betting on a hike, which brings $62K to $65K back into the picture.
The jobs number moved the price but the ETF desks didn't flinch. That's what I care about more. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#
Thursday was the good day. Fed governor Waller said he would back holding rates steady this month, and hike odds dropped from 63% to 52% overnight. $BTC broke $80K and ran all the way to $82,240, the highest we've seen since May. $456M in shorts got wiped out on the way up. The ETFs bought $730M that day, their biggest day since January.
Friday killed it. The August jobs report came in at 162,000 when everyone expected 53,000. When hiring is that strong, the Fed has room to raise rates, so bond yields jumped and money moved out of crypto. #BTC dropped from $81,335 to $79,654 in one five minute candle and kept going to $78,649. Everything Thursday gave us was gone in a day.
The levels I'm watching:
> $82,240: this week's top, where the breakout failed
> $80,000: we took it Thursday, lost it Friday
> $79,908: where we are now
> $78,649: first support
> $75,000: below this the trend is done
Here's the interesting part. The ETFs added around $980M this week (+12.69K BTC) and BTC still ended flat. The people who bought above $80,000 on Thursday didn't sell into Friday's drop. Total ETF assets are at $99.60B now, about to cross $100B for the first time.
Into the Fed meeting on the 16th, it comes down to two things.
Get $80,000 back and Friday was just a shakeout, nothing more.
Lose $78,649 and then $75,000 and the market is betting on a hike, which brings $62K to $65K back into the picture.
The jobs number moved the price but the ETF desks didn't flinch. That's what I care about more. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#
