I’m leaning toward $75K holding on the first serious test, but this is definitely not a clean bullish setup yet.

The bigger problem for $BTC isn’t just the latest U.S.–Iran escalation. It’s the macro stack behind it.

Oil is back above $90, the U.S. 10Y yield pushed to roughly 4.81%, and spot Bitcoin ETFs just printed about $236M in net outflows. That combination is exactly what you don’t want when BTC is trying to reclaim $80K.

At the same time, I wouldn’t ignore the other side of the trade.

Strategy just added another 4,603 BTC and now holds 845,050 $BTC. Sentiment has also cooled from extreme greed rather than completely collapsing. That looks more like leverage getting flushed than full market capitulation so far.

My levels:

$75K–$76K is the line that matters.

Hold it and reclaim $78K, and I think $80K comes back into play quickly.

Daily close below $75K and I’d expect $73K–$74K next. If that fails too, $70K–$72K becomes a very realistic liquidity target.

So for me: $75K probably gets defended first. But lose it convincingly and I’m not trying to catch the knife before the low $70Ks.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto