Market pumped hard 5 minutes after Warsh spoke — as if he wasn't the most hawkish Fed nominee we've seen in years 💀
40 minutes later, reality kicked in. Everything corrected the way it probably should've right after his speech.
Still… feels like he went full hawk to lock in credibility, not necessarily to signal an actual hike. The classic "talk tough to earn the room" play.
Futures now pricing 60% odds of a rate hike vs 32% yesterday. Big move.
So what's the real read here — September hike actually coming, or is this just posturing?
40 minutes later, reality kicked in. Everything corrected the way it probably should've right after his speech.
Still… feels like he went full hawk to lock in credibility, not necessarily to signal an actual hike. The classic "talk tough to earn the room" play.
Futures now pricing 60% odds of a rate hike vs 32% yesterday. Big move.
So what's the real read here — September hike actually coming, or is this just posturing?