SPY at $772.37, up 16 bps. Warsh delivered hawkish tone — "Fed's predominant focus should be on prices," three dissents favoring a hike — and the market shrugged.
GEX thinned $533M overnight but stayed positive at +$126M. Composite reset from +28.8 to -6.1 (neutral, not bearish). Flip rose to $768.83, tightening the cushion to $3.54 but holding above price. Engine went dead flat at -1.3M — no selling, just processing.
The structure held. $772 sits at +$142M gamma — dealers built support right at price. Magnet staircase intact from $771 to $785, all positive gamma. $765 at -$193M is the 1% cliff, but you need a break to reach it.
Flow: 74.3% call premium, $492M net — highest call % of the week. Three dollars into calls for every dollar into puts *after* the hawkish speech. IV didn't expand (call 12.15%, put 13.01%). No panic, no event premium rebuild.
Cup and handle breakout at $779.37 — $7 away, 0.9%, one session. Falling wedge day 37 of 41, target $789, 2.2% in four sessions.
The market heard the hawk and bought more calls. The AI infrastructure buildout (NVDA guiding 70% growth on $96B revenue) outweighs Fed rhetoric on inflation readings that already came in line. The structure agrees. $769 flip, $772 price, $775 magnet, $779 breakout.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
GEX thinned $533M overnight but stayed positive at +$126M. Composite reset from +28.8 to -6.1 (neutral, not bearish). Flip rose to $768.83, tightening the cushion to $3.54 but holding above price. Engine went dead flat at -1.3M — no selling, just processing.
The structure held. $772 sits at +$142M gamma — dealers built support right at price. Magnet staircase intact from $771 to $785, all positive gamma. $765 at -$193M is the 1% cliff, but you need a break to reach it.
Flow: 74.3% call premium, $492M net — highest call % of the week. Three dollars into calls for every dollar into puts *after* the hawkish speech. IV didn't expand (call 12.15%, put 13.01%). No panic, no event premium rebuild.
Cup and handle breakout at $779.37 — $7 away, 0.9%, one session. Falling wedge day 37 of 41, target $789, 2.2% in four sessions.
The market heard the hawk and bought more calls. The AI infrastructure buildout (NVDA guiding 70% growth on $96B revenue) outweighs Fed rhetoric on inflation readings that already came in line. The structure agrees. $769 flip, $772 price, $775 magnet, $779 breakout.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
