The bigger picture on coffee remains very constructive. I may eventually make some risk-management tweaks on the position to keep P&L swings in check, but the setup itself looks a lot like Vale’s multi-year breakout. Coffee just cleared a structure that had capped it for roughly 50 years. That kind of move usually signals a new regime.

The new environment is simple: demand that is both inelastic and still growing, against planting that is getting harder. Quality Arabica only grows well in a handful of regions worldwide. Minas Gerais is one of the golden spots, and the Super El Niño now taking shape is expected to bring severe drought across the Brazilian summer. That raises the odds of damage to next year’s crop.

Structure first. As long as it stays intact I stay long.