Introduction: A Week of Explosive Gains
Bitcoin has staged a remarkable rally this week, surging from $62,700 to $79,500—a gain of nearly 27%. This dramatic price action has captured the attention of cryptocurrency analysts, who are offering sharply contrasting perspectives on what comes next. While some see this as the dawn of a new bull cycle, others anticipate a short-term pullback before the next leg higher.
Ali Charts: The 'God Candle' Signal
Analyst Ali Charts has identified a pattern that has historically marked the end of bear markets in previous cycles. The current weekly candle—a massive green surge of 26.81%—bears a striking resemblance to what he calls a "god candle."
Historical Precedents
This pattern has appeared twice before with significant consequences:
In 2019: #Bitcoin recorded a weekly candle of nearly 32%, which marked the beginning of a new bull market following an extended bear phase.
In January 2023: Following the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin surged approximately 25% in a single week, similarly signaling the start of a fresh uptrend.
The Short Squeeze Mechanism
The god candle phenomenon typically begins as a short squeeze. Bearish traders who had been betting against Bitcoin's price open new short positions as the price edges higher. When the rally accelerates, these traders are forced to close their positions by buying back Bitcoin, creating a feedback loop that drives prices even higher.
What Makes This Different
What has caught analysts off guard is the timing. Based on the four-year cycle theory—which suggests Bitcoin bottoms roughly every four years—many had expected a cycle low in October. Instead, Bitcoin has staged an early breakout, suggesting the market may be front-running the anticipated cycle shift.
Merlijn The Trader: Entering the Distribution Phase
Analyst Merlijn The Trader offers a framework based on the three phases he believes every Bitcoin cycle undergoes:
Phase 1: Accumulation (February to May)
During this period, smart money and institutional investors accumulate positions quietly. Price action is typically range-bound, with low volatility and little retail interest. This phase builds the foundation for the move to come.
Phase 2: Manipulation (June to August)
This is characterized by shakeouts and false breakouts designed to shake weak hands out of their positions. During this phase, Bitcoin made a sharp excursion toward $60,000, testing the resolve of investors before reversing higher.
Phase 3: Distribution (Current Phase)
This is where the real price movement occurs. In this phase, the early buyers begin distributing their holdings to the broader market, and price tends to make its most dramatic moves.
Key Technical Trigger
Merlijn identifies a daily close above $81,000 as the critical trigger for continued upside. Should Bitcoin break and hold above this level, he projects a price target of $150,000 over the medium term—a gain of approximately 88% from current levels.
Michaël van de Poppe: Expecting a Pullback
Michaël van de Poppe, one of the more cautious voices in the crypto-analyst community, is not convinced that Bitcoin will rally in a straight line from current levels.
The Pullback Thesis
Van de Poppe anticipates a short-term retracement before positioning himself for further upside. He notes that Saturdays historically tend to be quiet trading days, and he sees no reason for this pattern to break now.
Entry Levels
He is waiting for a pullback before re-entering long positions. His ideal buying levels are:
Under $76,000: His first target entry zone
$74,000: His preferred entry level
The Strategy
Rather than chasing the rally at current levels, van de Poppe advocates patience. He wants to see Bitcoin retest recent lows before committing new capital, a strategy that prioritizes risk management over FOMO (fear of missing out).
Divergent Views: Bulls vs. Cautious Optimists
The current analyst landscape presents a classic divide between those who view the recent move as a regime change and those who see it as a move that needs to be confirmed.
The Bull Case
The god candle pattern has historically preceded major uptrends
Early breakouts often signal strong underlying demand
The short squeeze dynamic could continue if bearish positions remain elevated
A daily close above $81,000 could trigger further institutional buying
The Cautious Case
Sharp vertical moves often precede consolidation or pullbacks
Saturday low-volume trading rarely sustains momentum
Waiting for a retest of support levels provides better risk-reward
The four-year cycle low may still be ahead in October
What This Means for Traders and Investors
For Short-Term Traders
The near-term outlook is uncertain. The divergent analyst views suggest that both outcomes—continued upside and pullback—are plausible. Traders should be prepared for volatility and consider scaling into positions rather than going all-in at current levels.
Key levels to watch:
ScenarioKey LevelImplicationsBullish breakoutDaily close above $81,000Could trigger a move toward $150,000 according to MerlijnPullback scenarioBelow $76,000 or $74,000Potential buying opportunity according to van de PoppeGod candle confirmationWeekly close above current levelsHistoric precedent suggests new bull cycle
For Long-Term Investors
The fundamental question is whether the four-year cycle theory remains valid. If October indeed marks the cycle low, we may see a deeper retracement before the real bull market begins. However, if the god candle interpretation is correct, the bottom may already be in.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into Bitcoin over the coming weeks and months could help mitigate the risk of timing the exact bottom, regardless of which analyst proves correct.
Summary: Key Analyst Views at a Glance
AnalystViewKey LevelTargetAli ChartsGod candle signals new bull cycleWeekly close near current levelsNew bull marketMerlijn The TraderEntering distribution phaseDaily close > $81,000$150,000Michaël van de PoppeExpecting short-term pullbackBuy below $76,000 or $74,000Re-enter long positions
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin's recent price action has injected fresh excitement into the cryptocurrency market, but it has also created a split in analyst sentiment. The god candle pattern suggests we may be witnessing the start of something significant, while the cautious voices remind us that even the strongest rallies can experience healthy retracements.
For now, the market is at a crossroads. The coming days—particularly whether Bitcoin can sustain its rally and break above the critical $81,000 level—will likely provide greater clarity on which analyst camp is correct. Until then, traders would be wise to manage risk carefully and avoid overcommitting in either direction.