$VELVET : Relief Bounce or Bull Trap?

$VELVET just ripped 6.8% in 15m, but the weak volume behind the move makes this look more like bait than a genuine breakout.

My bias remains bearish on the 1h. The sharp pump is happening inside a confirmed lower-high structure, suggesting a relief bounce rather than a clean trend reversal. Daily, weekly, and BTC remain bullish, so any long from here is still a counter-trend scalp.

Key levels to watch:

0.7380–0.7629: rejection/sweep zone

0.7260–0.6996: first major demand

0.6601: deeper downside target

0.8225: critical bullish invalidation

I would only consider a short after a liquidity sweep into 0.7380–0.7629 followed by rejection, bearish engulfing, or a 15m structure break.

A sustained 1h close above 0.8225 with follow-through would invalidate the bearish setup and shift my bias bullish.

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