#usdollarfallstothreemonthlow
DRAM/NAND spot prices broadly stronger than expected.
DRAM spot prices have stayed firm for more than two
months
, even through the usual soft period.
Most chips, including 16Gb DDR5 and 8Gb DDR4, rose another
low
-single-digit percentage this week. That points toward roughly 30% sequential gains.
August contract prices for commodity DDR5 are still in the low- to mid-20% range quarter-on-quarter.
Rising September deals could push the full third-quarter ASP closer to 30% or higher. Long-term agreement prices show a wide spread, but the bulk sit near 20% or above.
NAND spot prices have also climbed quarter-to-date, around 20%. That is stronger than earlier sub-20% expectations.
Module makers and OEMs are increasing near-term orders ahead of smartphone and PC launches in September and the fourth quarter. Those products are expected to carry 10% or higher retail prices year-over-year.
China’s July semiconductor import data reinforce the picture. Overall chip imports rose 71% in dollar terms while units grew only 9%. Memory imports jumped 200% year-over-year, far outpacing logic. That points to sharply higher average selling prices.
The pricing environment remains supportive. Current third-quarter ASP assumptions of +23% for DRAM and +15% for NAND look intact.
Below image shows:
Exhibit 11 tracks long-term DRAM spot prices (2000–2026). After softening in April–May, prices rebounded through June–August.
16Gb DDR5 reached multi-decade highs near $53, while 8Gb DDR4 hit around $43 and higher-density parts also rose sharply. These levels sit well above the previous 2017 peak. The move is linked to supply being reallocated toward HBM and server DRAM.
Exhibit 12 shows NAND wafer spot prices (2019–2026). After staying roughly flat to slightly lower through 2Q26 following a strong rally in late 2025 and early 2026, prices rebounded sharply in early August.
512Gb TLC, 256Gb TLC, and 1Tb QLC wafers all moved higher.
$UNI
$US
$UB
DRAM/NAND spot prices broadly stronger than expected.
DRAM spot prices have stayed firm for more than two
months
, even through the usual soft period.
Most chips, including 16Gb DDR5 and 8Gb DDR4, rose another
low
-single-digit percentage this week. That points toward roughly 30% sequential gains.
August contract prices for commodity DDR5 are still in the low- to mid-20% range quarter-on-quarter.
Rising September deals could push the full third-quarter ASP closer to 30% or higher. Long-term agreement prices show a wide spread, but the bulk sit near 20% or above.
NAND spot prices have also climbed quarter-to-date, around 20%. That is stronger than earlier sub-20% expectations.
Module makers and OEMs are increasing near-term orders ahead of smartphone and PC launches in September and the fourth quarter. Those products are expected to carry 10% or higher retail prices year-over-year.
China’s July semiconductor import data reinforce the picture. Overall chip imports rose 71% in dollar terms while units grew only 9%. Memory imports jumped 200% year-over-year, far outpacing logic. That points to sharply higher average selling prices.
The pricing environment remains supportive. Current third-quarter ASP assumptions of +23% for DRAM and +15% for NAND look intact.
Below image shows:
Exhibit 11 tracks long-term DRAM spot prices (2000–2026). After softening in April–May, prices rebounded through June–August.
16Gb DDR5 reached multi-decade highs near $53, while 8Gb DDR4 hit around $43 and higher-density parts also rose sharply. These levels sit well above the previous 2017 peak. The move is linked to supply being reallocated toward HBM and server DRAM.
Exhibit 12 shows NAND wafer spot prices (2019–2026). After staying roughly flat to slightly lower through 2Q26 following a strong rally in late 2025 and early 2026, prices rebounded sharply in early August.
512Gb TLC, 256Gb TLC, and 1Tb QLC wafers all moved higher.
$UNI
$US
$UB