Headline: Standard Chartered: Bitcoin’s rally could push it back toward $126K before year‑end Bitcoin’s recent surge — up roughly 24% in a week to about $76,844 — has Standard Chartered’s digital asset team flagging a surprising upside scenario: if momentum holds, BTC could retest its $126,000 all‑time high before year‑end. Why the bank is optimistic - Short liquidations have been the primary catalyst for the recent rally, forcing buys that pushed prices higher. - Recovering inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are another potential source of sustained demand beyond forced buying. ETF flows have moved from net outflows earlier this year to renewed inflows in July, helping underpin the rebound. - Low open interest across the market means fewer active leveraged positions today, leaving capacity for investors to rebuild exposure without immediately creating the crowded leverage that can topple rallies. What Standard Chartered actually says Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, wrote that “for the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast (of USD100k) is too low.” Standard Chartered’s formal year‑end forecast remains $100,000, but Kendrick now views the $126,000 record as a plausible upside target if the recovery gathers momentum. He flagged Oct. 6 as an important date: it marks the anniversary of Bitcoin’s 2025 peak, and market behavior around that anniversary could influence whether the rebound endures. Context and track record - BTC traded near $76,844 at the time of Kendrick’s note — about 23% below the bank’s $100K forecast and roughly 39% below the $126K all‑time high. - Earlier this year (Feb. 12), Standard Chartered cut its year‑end Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 amid ETF outflows, weaker macro conditions, lower odds of Fed cuts, and shifting investor positioning. At the time it also trimmed Ether forecasts. - During June’s selloff the bank held to the $100K target, calling the late‑cycle dip (around the high‑$50,000s) driven largely by forced selling, weak ETF flows and liquidity stress. Bitcoin has since climbed more than $17,000 above those June lows. ETF flows and market dynamics - ETF demand has been a key watchpoint: spot ETF inflows resumed in July after a period of weakness. For example, U.S.‑listed spot funds recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, breaking a 10‑day negative streak, and inflows extended into multi‑day runs later in the month. - Kendrick argues stronger ETF flows would create buying demand that’s not solely dependent on short squeezes, supporting a more durable advance. Other market voices Industry participants are also increasingly open to the idea that the 2026 bear market may be ending. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten has suggested a potential bottom in October, and analysts like Markus Thielen have pointed to monthly closes above certain levels (e.g., $63K) as confirmation signals — levels Bitcoin has already cleared before the end of August. Bottom line Standard Chartered hasn’t formally replaced its $100K year‑end call, but its head of digital asset research now acknowledges the upside risk is higher than before. If short squeezes, renewed ETF demand and low positioning continue to converge, a move toward the $126K record becomes a realistic — if still conditional — outcome before year‑end. Risks remain, however: flows, macro policy, liquidity and profit‑taking could all stall or reverse the advance. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news