FED minutes just dropped and it's hawkish as hell.
Multiple officials saying if inflation doesn't roll over, rate hikes are back on the table. Financial conditions tightened between meetings — markets pricing in a more restrictive Fed, strong growth holding up. Translation: the squeeze is still on.
Inflation forecast basically flat vs June. Growth outlook? Softer. But inflation's still sticky across goods and services, broad-based pressure. A few members wanted to hike *now* to avoid bigger hikes later. That's the classic "rip the band-aid" play.
Warsh floated cutting meetings to 6/year (every ~2 months) to get more data between decisions. No decision made, 2026 calendar unchanged for now. But the tone is clear: they're not done.
For crypto: this is a liquidity headwind. If the Fed stays tight or pivots hawkish again, risk-on gets clipped. Watch $BTC's reaction to bond yields and the dollar. If DXY rips and yields spike, alts bleed first. Funding rates and open interest tell you who's overleveraged into this.
Right now? Don't fight the Fed. Wait for the data to crack or the Fed to blink. Until then, trade the chop, respect the range, and don't get cute with size.
Multiple officials saying if inflation doesn't roll over, rate hikes are back on the table. Financial conditions tightened between meetings — markets pricing in a more restrictive Fed, strong growth holding up. Translation: the squeeze is still on.
Inflation forecast basically flat vs June. Growth outlook? Softer. But inflation's still sticky across goods and services, broad-based pressure. A few members wanted to hike *now* to avoid bigger hikes later. That's the classic "rip the band-aid" play.
Warsh floated cutting meetings to 6/year (every ~2 months) to get more data between decisions. No decision made, 2026 calendar unchanged for now. But the tone is clear: they're not done.
For crypto: this is a liquidity headwind. If the Fed stays tight or pivots hawkish again, risk-on gets clipped. Watch $BTC's reaction to bond yields and the dollar. If DXY rips and yields spike, alts bleed first. Funding rates and open interest tell you who's overleveraged into this.
Right now? Don't fight the Fed. Wait for the data to crack or the Fed to blink. Until then, trade the chop, respect the range, and don't get cute with size.