$SNDK I’m tactically bearish on $SNDK here.
This is not a bet against Sandisk’s long-term AI or NAND story. The problem, in my view, is how much optimism is already reflected in the price.
SNDK has rallied more than 600% this year and recently surged again after its Investor Day. Sandisk is targeting mid-to-high-teens revenue growth for FY2028–2030, with roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margins and 75% operating margins. Those are extremely strong targets — but they also leave the market with a very high bar for execution.
We already saw a warning sign in the latest guidance. Sandisk’s September-quarter revenue midpoint came in below Wall Street expectations, showing how difficult it is for even strong fundamentals to keep exceeding increasingly aggressive expectations.
The options market is another reason I expect volatility to remain elevated. SNDK’s 30-day implied volatility was around 87% on August 17. The put/call volume ratio was about 0.83, so I would not call positioning outright bearish, but high volatility combined with a very crowded momentum trade can make reversals violent. Depending on dealer positioning, options hedging can amplify moves in either direction when momentum breaks.
Then there is the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. A Reuters poll shows 90% of economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, while markets are also pricing a meaningful — though minority — probability of another hike. Sticky inflation or a more hawkish Fed would be an uncomfortable backdrop for a high-beta stock that has already had an enormous run.
So my thesis is simple: great company, powerful long-term story, but expectations and positioning may have moved too far too fast.
I’m looking for a short-term mean reversion rather than calling the end of Sandisk’s long-term bull case.
$SNDK #SNDK #Sandisk
This is not a bet against Sandisk’s long-term AI or NAND story. The problem, in my view, is how much optimism is already reflected in the price.
SNDK has rallied more than 600% this year and recently surged again after its Investor Day. Sandisk is targeting mid-to-high-teens revenue growth for FY2028–2030, with roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margins and 75% operating margins. Those are extremely strong targets — but they also leave the market with a very high bar for execution.
We already saw a warning sign in the latest guidance. Sandisk’s September-quarter revenue midpoint came in below Wall Street expectations, showing how difficult it is for even strong fundamentals to keep exceeding increasingly aggressive expectations.
The options market is another reason I expect volatility to remain elevated. SNDK’s 30-day implied volatility was around 87% on August 17. The put/call volume ratio was about 0.83, so I would not call positioning outright bearish, but high volatility combined with a very crowded momentum trade can make reversals violent. Depending on dealer positioning, options hedging can amplify moves in either direction when momentum breaks.
Then there is the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. A Reuters poll shows 90% of economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, while markets are also pricing a meaningful — though minority — probability of another hike. Sticky inflation or a more hawkish Fed would be an uncomfortable backdrop for a high-beta stock that has already had an enormous run.
So my thesis is simple: great company, powerful long-term story, but expectations and positioning may have moved too far too fast.
I’m looking for a short-term mean reversion rather than calling the end of Sandisk’s long-term bull case.
$SNDK #SNDK #Sandisk