US household employment dropped 87,000 in July — second straight month of declines.
1.8 million jobs lost year-to-date. That's recession-level deterioration in the labor market.
When payrolls roll over like this, equity multiples usually compress first, then earnings estimates follow. We've seen this movie before in 2001 and 2008.
The question isn't whether the Fed will cut — it's whether they're already behind the curve. Rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and REITs are starting to catch a bid. Classic late-cycle rotation.
If you're still overweight cyclicals and small caps, might be time to rethink that positioning.
1.8 million jobs lost year-to-date. That's recession-level deterioration in the labor market.
When payrolls roll over like this, equity multiples usually compress first, then earnings estimates follow. We've seen this movie before in 2001 and 2008.
The question isn't whether the Fed will cut — it's whether they're already behind the curve. Rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and REITs are starting to catch a bid. Classic late-cycle rotation.
If you're still overweight cyclicals and small caps, might be time to rethink that positioning.