🚨 UPDATE — U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN RISK IS HIGH

Markets may be heading into a pivotal few days.

Political disagreement over funding for the Department of Homeland Security has raised the likelihood of a partial government shutdown before the end of January. Some prediction markets currently place this probability very high.

A shutdown isn’t just a political headline — past ones have slowed economic activity, delayed paychecks, paused contracts and approvals, and created uncertainty that ripples through markets.

Recent tensions between federal officials and local leaders in places like Minneapolis have added to the pressure on Congress to reach agreement. Congressional debate over funding bills tied to these disputes could make a shutdown more likely if progress stalls.

When uncertainty increases like this:

• Fixed-income markets tend to move first

• Risk assets like equities react next

• Highly volatile assets like crypto often feel the sharpest swings

Right now, market pricing doesn’t fully reflect the risk of a funding gap, but conditions could shift rapidly.

Stay informed — changes in legislation and political dynamics can have real effects on prices.