$CL $BTC $NVDAB (WTI Crude Oil) — Quick Take (Aug 11, 2026)
WTI is trading around $82 per barrel, up nearly 30% year-over-year and about 5% over the past month, after a sharp round trip: it plunged from ~$86.89 to $74.30 in early August, then bounced back on renewed geopolitical risk.
Key levels:
Price just broke above a descending trend line connecting lower highs since late July — a potential bullish signal
Now testing the 200-day SMA near $79.50; the 100-day SMA sits just below that
Resistance: $79.37 (38.2% Fib), $78.40 (50% Fib), $77.44 (61.8% Fib) — these are the levels a pullback could target
Support: swing low near $74.30
What's driving it:
Iran tensions dominate: a weekend missile strike on an ADNOC-linked vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, plus Iran naming a hardline security chief, pushed prices higher
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels — the lowest since 1983 — adding a bullish supply-side backdrop
Trump signaled a preference for economic pressure on Iran over new military strikes, tempering the most extreme escalation fears
OPEC discipline and tight futures curve continue to support prices structurally
Outlook: Broader August range estimates run wide ($68–$107), reflecting how sensitive oil is right now to any Strait of Hormuz escalation or de-escalation news. A sustained close above $79.50 (200-SMA) would strengthen the bullish case toward $82+; failure there risks a slide back toward $74.30.
WTI is trading around $82 per barrel, up nearly 30% year-over-year and about 5% over the past month, after a sharp round trip: it plunged from ~$86.89 to $74.30 in early August, then bounced back on renewed geopolitical risk.
Key levels:
Price just broke above a descending trend line connecting lower highs since late July — a potential bullish signal
Now testing the 200-day SMA near $79.50; the 100-day SMA sits just below that
Resistance: $79.37 (38.2% Fib), $78.40 (50% Fib), $77.44 (61.8% Fib) — these are the levels a pullback could target
Support: swing low near $74.30
What's driving it:
Iran tensions dominate: a weekend missile strike on an ADNOC-linked vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, plus Iran naming a hardline security chief, pushed prices higher
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels — the lowest since 1983 — adding a bullish supply-side backdrop
Trump signaled a preference for economic pressure on Iran over new military strikes, tempering the most extreme escalation fears
OPEC discipline and tight futures curve continue to support prices structurally
Outlook: Broader August range estimates run wide ($68–$107), reflecting how sensitive oil is right now to any Strait of Hormuz escalation or de-escalation news. A sustained close above $79.50 (200-SMA) would strengthen the bullish case toward $82+; failure there risks a slide back toward $74.30.