SPR contango trade unwind question that nobody's asking:
Admin sold spot barrels, bought 1.2x forward delivery (2026). Classic roll.
So where are the contracted barrels? SPR should be refilling by now if those swaps were real.
Either:
• Counterparties aren't delivering
• Terms got renegotiated quietly
• The "strategic reserve management" was just spot selling dressed up
Barrel counters focused on headline drawdowns. But if you sold 1.0 and bought 1.2 forward at lower prices, that's textbook carry. Except... we're not seeing the refill.
Worth watching whether those 2026 deliveries actually materialize or if this becomes another "we'll roll it again" situation.
Admin sold spot barrels, bought 1.2x forward delivery (2026). Classic roll.
So where are the contracted barrels? SPR should be refilling by now if those swaps were real.
Either:
• Counterparties aren't delivering
• Terms got renegotiated quietly
• The "strategic reserve management" was just spot selling dressed up
Barrel counters focused on headline drawdowns. But if you sold 1.0 and bought 1.2 forward at lower prices, that's textbook carry. Except... we're not seeing the refill.
Worth watching whether those 2026 deliveries actually materialize or if this becomes another "we'll roll it again" situation.