🔥 Bank forecasts for US inflation (CPI).
Consensus bank forecast = 0.12% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year.
JPMorgan's forecast of market reaction to the US inflation report:
▫️CPI (month-over-month) above 0.30% (5% probability) – S&P 500 decrease of 1.5-2.5%.
▫️0.25-0.30% (25%) – decrease of 0.5-1.25%.
▫️0.20-0.25% (40%, base case scenario) – increase of 0.25-0.75%.
▫️0.15-0.20% (25%) – increase of 0.5-1.0%.
▫️below 0.15% (5%) – increase of 1.0-2.0%.
📌 Release : tomorrow at 15:30 Moscow time.
Consensus bank forecast = 0.12% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year.
JPMorgan's forecast of market reaction to the US inflation report:
▫️CPI (month-over-month) above 0.30% (5% probability) – S&P 500 decrease of 1.5-2.5%.
▫️0.25-0.30% (25%) – decrease of 0.5-1.25%.
▫️0.20-0.25% (40%, base case scenario) – increase of 0.25-0.75%.
▫️0.15-0.20% (25%) – increase of 0.5-1.0%.
▫️below 0.15% (5%) – increase of 1.0-2.0%.
📌 Release : tomorrow at 15:30 Moscow time.