🚨 THE NUMBER THAT FEEDS DIRECTLY INTO US GDP JUST WENT NEGATIVE.
Retail control fell 0.4% in July.
The market expected a 0.3% gain, and June came in at a 0.4% rise.
This is the line economists plug straight into their GDP models, so estimates for the quarter get revised down the same day it prints.
The rest of the report was just as weak.
Headline retail sales fell 0.6% against a 0.1% expected gain, reversing June's 0.2% rise.
Core retail sales fell 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
Consumer spending is close to 70% of the US economy. June was positive across the board and July flipped to negative across the board in a single month.
For markets, this pushes the argument back toward rate cuts.
Weaker spending means slower growth and less pricing power for companies going into the next earnings season.
The question now is whether the Fed reads this as the cooling it wanted, or the start of something it moved too slowly to stop.
ok so meme coins are literally 100x-ing rn and i'm sitting here at 2am reading Dusk Network docs like an idiot 💀 i really need to stop doing this to myself lol
but ok hear me out — the tech is actually kinda insane. ZK proofs for privacy, but selective disclosure means you can still show regulators what they need to see. wait actually let me rephrase that, it's not "show whatever" it's more like proof-based compliance, MiCA MiFID II stuff baked into the protocol itself. which like. most chains don't even think about until they're forced to
so why is nobody talking about this. adoption is just. slow. institutions keep circling, doing their little pilot programs, announcing partnerships, and then??? nothing. no follow through. hype's basically dead too, no 2021 energy at all and honestly that's kind of sad because the fundamentals are there
my friend thinks i'm insane for still checking on this project ngl 😭 and maybe i am, i don't know anymore
it's frustrating but also weirdly i still have hope for it, like maybe boring compliance-first stuff just takes longer to actually show up
idk maybe i'm wrong about all this, but quiet projects do win sometimes when everyone stops watching. who knows honestly
BULLISH: The Fed is quietly adding liquidity back into the system.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has climbed to around $6.76 trillion, its highest level in roughly 18 months.
Since December, that’s an increase of about $224 billion.
And this matters.
A bigger Fed balance sheet generally means more reserves and easier liquidity conditions across the financial system. That can create a friendlier environment for risk assets like stocks and crypto.
We’ve seen this movie before:
More liquidity → more risk appetite → more capital chasing assets.
It doesn’t mean Bitcoin automatically goes up tomorrow. Markets can ignore liquidity for a while.
But if the Fed keeps adding liquidity while investors are already bullish, the setup gets very interesting.
Entry Zone: 0.01040 – 0.01060 (current price ~0.01058, so you can enter here or wait for a slight pullback)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.00980 (Just below the recent breakout structure. If it breaks this, the bullish momentum is invalid.)
Take Profit (TP) Targets:
· TP1: 0.01120 (light profit, move SL to breakeven) · TP2: 0.01180 (24h high – major resistance) · TP3: 0.01250 (extension if momentum continues)
Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5 – 1:4 (depending on which TP you hit)
Why LONG?
· Massive volume (143B AKE, 1B USDT) shows strong interest. · Price is holding above the Mark Price (0.01057) and has broken out of the recent low zone. · +86% gain in local currency reflects strong buying pressure. · Momentum is up +11% in the last session, with higher highs forming.
⚠️ Key Risk:
· If price drops below 0.00980, the move fails. Stick to your SL. · Watch for rejection at 0.01180 (24h high) — book profits there or tighten SL.
My take: This is a momentum play. Enter light, scale out at TPs, and don't get greedy. The volume is there, but so is volatility.