#CPIWatch % YoY (latest Nov-24) Headline CPI Core CPI
Sep 2025 +3.0 +3.0
Aug 2025 +2.9 +2.9
Jul 2025 +2.9 +3.0
Jun 2025 +2.4 +2.8
May 2025 +2.4 +2.8
#CPIWatch – 4 Dec 2025
(next print: Wed 18 Dec, 8:30 AM ET)
% YoY (latest Nov-24) Headline CPI Core CPI
Sep 2025 +3.0 +3.0
Aug 2025 +2.9 +2.9
Jul 2025 +2.9 +3.0
Jun 2025 +2.4 +2.8
May 2025 +2.4 +2.8
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🔍 Quick read-out
- Sticky shelter: owners’-equivalent rent still the single-biggest driver (+3.6 % YoY).
- Food pulse: grocery inflation cooled to +2.7 % YoY; meats & beverages the last hot spots.
- Energy whipsaw: gasoline −0.5 % YoY, but electricity +5 % and natural-gas +11.7 %—winter risk.
- Core services ex-shelter: medical care +3.3 %, air fares rebounding (+2.7 % MoM Sept).
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⏭️ What markets are eyeing on 18 Dec
1. Tariff passthrough – most 2025 duties hit shelves in Q4; BLS says “limited so far,” but traders expect +0.1-0.2 ppt lift.
2. Shelter deceleration – OER printed smallest MoM since Jan-21; two more soft prints = core < 2.5 %.
3. Fed pivot space – futures now price 67 % chance of a Jan cut if Nov core MoM ≤ 0.2 %.
