First: the only obvious truth about the market is this no one truly knows what happens next
Most analysis is extremely short-term at best, maybe a week from Monday to Friday
Many people (myself included) are still anchored to old experiences:
How was it in 2021?
How did it behave in 2017?
But that framework no longer holds much weight
Time moves forward. Context changes. Every cycle now operates under a different backdrop, and outcomes will differ
Patterns still exist they always will
But exceptions exist too, and there will be many of them
Second: this cycle has inflicted real psychological damage
Small players, large players it doesn’t matter. Everyone is carrying pain
The real winners were those who exited in 2021
Even if they “wasted” money on cars, watches, or real estate and did nothing afterward from a capital allocation perspective, they still won
If you combine spot and futures exposure across the market, most participants today are likely underwater
That matters, because it shapes future behavior
If another upcycle comes, many will exit early not out of strategy, but to escape stress
Then they’ll re enter higher
And the loop will repeat, as it always does
Third: our biggest problem is that most positions are opened based on expectation, not structure
We trade scenarios we imagine, not facts that are confirmed
Everyone wants to be early
Every idea feels unique
Every news event feels like it must move price
But nothing exists until it actually happens
And the worst part?
When something finally does happen, decisions become biased because the mistake was already made at the very first action
And then the loop begins again
