derivative

Bitcoin’s -53% drop in just 120 days feels abnormal — because it is.
No exchange collapse.
No outright bans.
No single black-swan headline.
Yet price kept bleeding.
So what actually changed?

🔄 Bitcoin No Longer Trades Like Old Cycles

In early cycles, BTC price was driven by:

Spot buyers & sellers

On-chain coin movement

Fixed supply meeting real demand

That model is no longer dominant.
Today, Bitcoin trades as a synthetic, leveraged asset.
A huge share of price discovery now happens via:

Futures & perpetuals

Options

ETFs

Prime broker lending

Wrapped BTC & structured products

👉 Exposure without touching real BTC.

⚙️ How Derivatives Pushed BTC Lower — Non-Stop

Institutions can short Bitcoin at scale through derivatives:

No need for spot selling

No coins leaving wallets

Once price slips:

Longs get liquidated

Forced selling kicks in

Liquidations trigger more liquidations

That’s why this drop looked mechanical, not emotional:

Funding flips negative

Open interest collapses

Bounce attempts get sold instantly

This wasn’t retail panic.
This was positioning being unwound.

❌ The “21M Supply” Narrative Isn’t Enough Anymore

Bitcoin’s hard cap didn’t change — but effective supply did.
Paper BTC now trades at scale.
Price reacts to:

Hedging flows

Leverage resets

Risk-off macro behavior

Not just spot demand.
Crypto is now treated like a leveraged macro asset.
When stocks wobble → crypto gets sold first.

🌍 Macro = Background Pressure, Not the Trigger

Yes, macro matters:

Equity weakness

Volatile gold & silver

Fed liquidity expectations

Geopolitical tension

But macro amplified the move — it didn’t start it.
This sell-off looks controlled, not capitulatory:

Red candles stacking

Shallow relief rallies

Large players quietly reducing exposure

🔮 What Happens Next?

⚠️ Relief bounces are possible — liquidation events usually get them.
But:

Sustained upside is harder

Derivatives still control price

Global risk remains fragile

📌 The key takeaway:
Bitcoin didn’t dump because fundamentals broke.
It dumped because BTC now trades through leverage, not just supply.
And leverage cuts both ways.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #Derivative #MarketStructure #Macro #RiskOff

短い答え：
直接的には – いいえ。
間接的には – はい、時にはかなり強く。
永続先物は何をしないか
永続契約：
実際の資産を取引することはない（実際のコインは購入または販売されない）、
現物価格を自動的に変えることはない、
デリバティブであり → その価格は現物市場に固定されており、その逆ではない。
言い換えれば、「先物が現物価格を設定する」という直接的なメカニズムはない。
実際に何が起こるか（重要な部分）
1️⃣ 資金調達率 – 先物と現物のリンク