fundamentalanalysis

Fundamental analysis is the structured process of determining an asset’s intrinsic value by examining the economic, financial, technological, and structural factors that influence its long-term performance.
Unlike short-term price speculation, fundamental analysis attempts to answer a deeper question:
What should this asset logically be worth based on measurable reality?
Where technical analysis studies price behavior, fundamental analysis studies value creation mechanisms.
Institutional investors typically combine both, but capital allocation decisions are primarily driven by fundamentals.
Core Principle of Fundamental Analysis
At its foundation, the approach assumes:
Over long time horizons, market price converges toward intrinsic value.
Short-term market movements may be influenced by:
liquidity shocks
speculative sentiment
derivatives positioning
news-driven volatility
But sustainable trends usually reflect:
earnings growth
capital flows
adoption metrics
macroeconomic conditions
The Three Layers of Fundamental Analysis
Professional analysts usually divide the process into three structural levels.
1. Macroeconomic Analysis (Top-Level Environment)
This stage evaluates the broader financial ecosystem.
Key variables include:
Monetary Policy
Interest rates set by institutions such as the
Federal Reserve
or the
European Central Bank
directly affect liquidity availability.
Lower rates → more borrowing → increased risk appetite
Higher rates → capital contraction → asset repricing
Inflation Trends
Persistent inflation impacts:
corporate margins
consumer purchasing power
currency stability
bond yields
Inflation shocks often trigger capital rotation across asset classes.
Global Liquidity Cycles
Markets expand when:
central bank balance sheets grow
fiscal spending increases
credit markets loosen
Liquidity contraction historically precedes bear markets across most financial sectors.
2. Industry-Level Analysis
After evaluating the macro environment, analysts examine the sector.
Key considerations:
Market Size and Growth Rate
Is the industry:
expanding rapidly
saturated
technologically disrupted
Fast-growing sectors justify higher valuation multiples.
Competitive Structure
Industries dominated by a few large firms tend to produce:
higher pricing power
stable margins
predictable revenue streams
Fragmented industries often show unstable profitability.
Regulatory Risk
Sectors such as:
banking
cryptocurrency
pharmaceuticals
are heavily influenced by government policy and compliance requirements.
Regulation can either:
unlock institutional adoption
restrict operational scalability
3. Company or Project-Level Analysis
This stage evaluates the specific asset.
For stocks, analysts focus on:
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue expansion signals:
market demand strength
competitive positioning
product scalability
Sudden revenue contraction often precedes valuation decline.
Profitability Metrics
Professional investors examine:
operating margin
net profit margin
return on equity
free cash flow generation
Companies that generate stable free cash flow are considered fundamentally stronger.
Debt Structure
High leverage increases risk during economic downturns.
Analysts compare:
total debt vs earnings
interest coverage ratios
maturity schedules
Excessive short-term debt is a major institutional red flag.
Fundamental Analysis in Cryptocurrency Markets
Crypto requires a modified framework because many projects lack traditional earnings.
Instead, analysts focus on:
Network Activity Metrics
These include:
daily active addresses
transaction volume
validator participation
staking ratios
Growing on-chain activity indicates increasing ecosystem utility.
Token Supply Economics
Important variables include:
inflation schedule
token unlock timelines
burn mechanisms
distribution concentration
Assets with predictable supply models are easier to value.
Developer Ecosystem Strength
Strong development activity suggests:
long-term innovation potential
security improvements
expanding application layers
Declining developer participation often precedes ecosystem stagnation.
Valuation Methods Used in Fundamental Analysis
Professionals use structured valuation models rather than intuition.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
This model estimates present value by discounting projected future earnings.
Used heavily in:
equity markets
infrastructure investments
stable revenue businesses
Comparable Company Analysis
Here analysts compare:
valuation ratios
growth rates
industry positioning
Similar companies should theoretically trade at similar multiples.
Network Value Models (Crypto-Specific)
Crypto analysts often compare:
market capitalization vs transaction value
network usage vs token price
staking participation vs circulating supply
These models attempt to link network adoption to valuation.
Limitations of Fundamental Analysis
Even professional models have constraints.
Markets Can Stay Irrational
Assets may remain overvalued or undervalued for extended periods.
Liquidity flows sometimes overpower fundamentals.
Data Quality Issues
Financial statements may:
contain accounting distortions
hide structural liabilities
exaggerate growth projections
In crypto, on-chain metrics can also be artificially inflated by wash activity.
Structural Market Shifts
Technological disruption can rapidly invalidate prior valuation assumptions.
Entire industries can change within a decade.
Professional Workflow Used by Institutional Analysts
A simplified institutional process:
Analyze global liquidity conditions
Evaluate sector growth outlook
Screen companies/projects for financial strength
Apply valuation models
Compare intrinsic value vs market price
Allocate capital only if risk-reward ratio is favorable
Strategic Insight for Traders
Fundamental analysis does not predict exact timing.
Instead, it identifies:
which assets deserve long-term capital
which sectors show structural expansion
where valuation asymmetry exists
Timing entry still requires:
technical analysis
liquidity monitoring
risk management
Professional Closing Statement
Markets fluctuate based on sentiment.
But capital compounds based on value creation.
Fundamental analysis is not designed to chase price movement.
It is designed to identify the economic engines that make price movement inevitable.
$ZEC
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$ETH
#Fundamental_Analysis #fundamentalanalysis

By @On-chain INT

想像してみてください、暗号通貨市場はレンタルされたペントハウスでの大規模なパーティーです。みんなは踊り、「X」のカクテルを飲みながら、Bitcoinが$100kになるのを待っています。しかし突然、ドアを叩く真剣な男性が日本の着物を着て、手に計算機を持っています。彼はYield Gapで、音楽を止めに来たのです。

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