fedratedecisions

Truflation is showing US inflation near 0.68% while layoffs, credit defaults, and bankruptcies are all rising, yet the Fed still says the economy is strong.

If you look at the economy right now and compare it with what the Fed is saying publicly, there is a very clear disconnect building.

The Fed keeps repeating that the job market is still strong. But real data coming out from layoffs, hiring slowdowns, and wage trends is telling a different story.

We are already seeing cracks forming beneath the surface. The labor market is not collapsing overnight, but it is clearly weakening faster than what official statements suggest.

The same disconnect shows up in inflation data.

The Fed continues to say inflation is still sticky and not fully under control. But real time inflation trackers like Truflation are now showing inflation running close to 0.68%.
$XRP
That level is not signaling overheating.

It is signaling that price pressures are cooling rapidly and the economy is moving closer toward disinflation and potentially deflation if the trend continues.

And deflation is a much bigger risk than inflation. Inflation slows spending but deflation stops spending. When consumers expect prices to fall, they delay purchases, businesses cut production, margins shrink, and layoffs accelerate.

That is when economic slowdowns turn into deeper recessions.

Another area flashing warning signs is credit stress. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Auto loan defaults are rising. Corporate credit stress is rising.

These are late cycle signals that usually appear when households and businesses are already struggling with higher rates.

Bankruptcies are also moving higher across sectors.

This shows that the cost of capital is starting to break weaker balance sheets. Small businesses and over-leveraged companies are feeling the pressure first but that pressure spreads if policy stays tight for too long.

So the bigger question becomes policy timing.

If inflation is already cooling…
If the labor market is already weakening…
If credit stress is already rising…

Then holding rates restrictive for too long can amplify the slowdown instead of stabilizing it.

Monetary policy works with a lag. Which means by the time the Fed reacts to confirmed weakness in lagging data, the damage is often already done.

That is the risk the market is starting to price in now. This is no longer just about inflation control.

It is about whether policy is now overtight relative to real-time economic conditions.

And if that is the case, then the next phase of the cycle will not be driven by inflation fears… It will be driven by growth fears and policy reversal expectations.

That is why the Is the Fed too late? question is starting to matter more for markets going into the next few months.

#WarshFedPolicyOutlook #FedRateDecisions #FedRateCut

なぜ昨日の売りがランダムではなかったのか - それは構造的だった

そして、なぜ市場が突然流動性を再考しているのか

昨日見た急激な売りは、どこからともなく現れたわけではありません。ケビン・ウォーシュが次の連邦準備制度理事会の議長になる可能性が大幅に高まった後、ほぼ瞬時に始まりました。

その反応は感情的なものではありませんでした。それは構造的なものでした。

トレーダーたちはウォーシュが無名だからパニックになったわけではありません。彼の実績と、それが今後の流動性に何を意味するかを知っているからこそ売ったのです。

#FedRateDecisions #FedNews #WhoIsNextFedChair #FederalSecurityLaws #MarketCorrection
新しいアメリカ連邦準備制度理事会の議長が就任し、より柔軟な金融政策の方針を発表したことで、金融市場は慎重な様相に入りました。暗号通貨は、金融政策の変化に最も敏感な資産として、連邦の決定と直接対峙することになります。これにより、世界の投資マップが再描画される可能性があります。

🔥 市場のショック: FRB、金利を据え置き – 次は何か？⚠️ FRB、金利を凍結、
FRB、インフレが上昇する中で慎重を保つ！ 🚨 FRBの大きな決断: カットなし、しかし問題が待っている？
始める前に...🔥おそらく👉 私のコンテンツをすぐにプライベートにします、フォロワーにのみ表示されます。ここで私をフォローして、これと将来のコンテンツを見逃さないようにしましょう。
—連邦準備制度は、金利を4.25-4.5%に据え置くことを発表しました 📉、つまり借入コストは今のところ変わりません。しかし、ここにひねりがあります – インフレの見通しを引き上げ、2025年の成長期待を引き下げました。🤯