comexupdate

2025年はラリーではありませんでした。
それは体制の変化でした。
金 $XAU はただ上昇しただけでなく、爆発的に上昇しました。
1年で55%上昇。
史上最高値が53回。
ほぼ毎週新しい記録が1つ。
1979年以来の最強の年間パフォーマンス。
そして、私たちは現在、1オンスあたり$5,000に迫っています。
これは後期サイクルの熱狂ではありません。
初期段階の再価格設定です。
1. ウォール街は依然として動きを過小評価しています。
大手銀行は調整を行っていますが、慎重です。
ゴールドマン・サックスは2026年末までに$5,400を見るが、「大きな上振れリスク」を公然と認めています。

銀$XAG 市場はちょうど一線を越えました。
感情ではありません。
投機ではありません。
政策です。
2026年2月は、米国政府が市場が何年も否定してきたことを静かに認めた月として記憶されるかもしれません:
銀は構造的に過小評価されています — そして自由市場の価格はもはや信頼されていません。
ここが変わった点です。
1. 米国の銀価格底支えは現実です
米国国務省の公式に確認された報告によると、ワシントンは戦略的鉱物、特に銀のための価格底支えメカニズムを確立しています。

This is no longer about price.
It is about delivery.
It is about control.
And it may become the day the Western paper silver system is exposed.
The global silver $XAG market is approaching a structural emergency — and February 27, 2026 could mark the inflection point.
1. The COMEX Delivery Crisis – A Mathematical Event
February 27 is the First Notice Day for March silver $XAG futures on COMEX.
This is when traders must choose:
Roll the contract,Close for cash,Or demand physical delivery.
Under normal conditions, this is procedural.
This time, it is existential.
Over 400 million ounces are tied to March contracts.
COMEX has only 98 million ounces of registered silver available for delivery.
For the first time since modern records began, registered inventory fell below the psychological 100-million-ounce threshold on February 11, 2026.
Withdrawals are accelerating — averaging roughly 785,000 ounces per day.
If just 25–50% of contract holders demand physical metal, the exchange simply cannot perform.
This is not speculation.
This is arithmetic.
2. Investors Are Abandoning Paper
Historically, only 3–5% of futures traders take delivery.
February 2026 shattered that norm.
Delivery demand surged to 98%.
Even more revealing: during the violent price collapse on January 30 — when silver plunged from $121 to $64 — 3.3 million ounces were still withdrawn from vaults.
That behavior does not belong to retail speculators.
It signals something deeper:
Large players no longer trust “paper price.”
They want metal in hand.
When capital chooses custody over leverage, the system is already under stress.

3. The East–West Resource Divide
The silver market is fragmenting into geopolitical blocs — North America, Europe, Asia.
And the metal is flowing East.
China now controls roughly 70% of global refined silver output and added silver to its export control list effective January 1, 2026.
Shanghai inventories have fallen to just 318 tons, while massive short positions — reportedly up to 450 tons — sit exposed.
That imbalance echoes the nickel short squeeze of 2022.
Meanwhile, corporate behavior is shifting.
Samsung recently secured an exclusive two-year offtake agreement for the full output of a Mexican silver mine — bypassing exchanges entirely.
When technology giants stop relying on centralized exchanges for supply, they are voting with capital.
And they are voting against the paper system.
4. Signs of Structural Stress
The January collapse was not a normal correction.
CME raised margin requirements to 9%, creating what many describe as an automatic liquidation machine — forcing long positions to unwind into falling prices.
At the exact bottom on January 30, JP Morgan reportedly stood for delivery of over 3 million ounces at distressed prices.
Liquidity crisis for some.
Inventory acquisition opportunity for others.
Regulatory contrast is equally telling:
The U.S. remained largely silent.China suspended five commodity funds and penalized hundreds of traders for naked short selling to stabilize its domestic market.
Two systems.
Two philosophies of control.
5. The Structural Deficit
The world is running a 40–50 million ounce monthly silver deficit.
Since 2021, cumulative shortages have reached approximately 820 million ounces.
That is not cyclical.
That is structural.
Silver $XAG is no longer just an investment asset.
It is an industrial necessity — solar, electronics, defense systems, AI infrastructure.
Deficits in strategic materials do not resolve quietly.
They reprice.
6. The Force Majeure Scenario
If COMEX cannot deliver on February 27, it may declare force majeure and settle contracts in cash.
Legally possible.
Psychologically catastrophic.
Cash settlement would confirm what many already suspect:
Paper silver is leverage.
Physical silver is reality.
In that scenario, the price outside the paper system could decouple violently.
If the gold-silver ratio compresses under stress, projections of $300–$400 silver move from fantasy to probability.
Final Assessment
February 27, 2026 is not just another contract cycle.
It is a stress test of the Western silver pricing mechanism.
Governments are stockpiling.
Technology corporations are locking in supply.
Eastern markets are tightening control.
Silver is no longer a trade.
It is a strategic resource in a global power contest.
And when the custodians of paper cannot deliver metal,
price discovery will not be negotiated —
it will be forced.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#COMEXUpdate #Silver #SilverDrain

$3,6兆米ドルが90分で消えました。
メディアはこれを「健全な修正」と呼んでいます。
しかし、相互接続された市場と実物の流れは別の物語を語っています：
これは変動ではありません。
これはシステムリスク管理です。
1. 「価格」がもはや価格でないとき
ニューヨーク：
$75–76/oz
上海：
$82/oz スポット – $85/oz 先物
差 ~10%。
金属市場では、それはスプレッドではありません。
それは信頼の断絶の信号です。

2026年2月。
世界がまだ半分眠っている間、AI株とテクノロジーの物語に催眠術をかけられ、COMEXの床の下で静かに金融津波が形成されている。
残虐なシナリオが形を成している：
世界最大の銀取引所が物理的な銀の枯渇の危機に瀕している
。
テレビの磨かれたトークヘッドを無視せよ。「よく管理された在庫」の物語を無視せよ。
生の数字ははるかに暗い物語を語っている。
1. 「在庫」幻想：400人の飢えた人々のための100斤のパン
COMEXは現在、配達可能な登録銀が1億3百万オンスのみであるとリストしている。