altcoins

Every cycle teaches the same lesson.
Altseason does not go straight up.
It moves in waves.
For the past two years, most people focused on the exciting parts. The explosive rallies. The vertical candles. The weeks where everything feels easy.
But the real structure of this cycle has been different.
It has been moving in blocks.
A rally.
Then a long grind down.
Then another rally.
Then another long grind down.
Not a bad week.
Not a red month.
A full four-month bleed.
And that changes how you should think about where we are now.
If you step back and look at Total3, the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, a pattern becomes clear. Since early 2024, altcoins have followed a repeating rhythm.
In Q1 2024, alts ripped hard. Liquidity rotated. Sentiment turned aggressive. New narratives printed fast.
Then came the slow bleed.
Roughly 120 days of steady downside. Bounces got sold. Breakouts failed. Social feeds went quiet. Momentum faded.
Later in the cycle, another leg up arrived. Strong push. Renewed optimism. Traders felt early again.
And then it happened again.
Another 120-day downtrend.
Similar length. Similar behavior. Same emotional tone.
That is not random.
When markets repeat timing patterns inside the same macro cycle, it tells you something about structure.
This has not been a straight-line bull market for altcoins. It has been rotational. Controlled. Liquidity-driven.
Rally.
Distribution.
Slow bleed.
Reset.
Rally again.
Most participants only notice the rally phase. That is when screenshots are shared.
But the traders who survive long term study the reset phase.
Because that is where positioning happens.
Right now, we are in that reset zone again.
And this is where things get interesting.
Price has dropped back into a major support band on Total3. This zone acted as a floor before. The market reacted strongly there in previous cycles of the same structure.
Markets have memory. When price revisits a level where buyers previously stepped in, it becomes a decision area.
It does not guarantee a reversal.
But it does shift the risk-reward equation.
At the same time, momentum indicators like RSI have been trending down for months. Momentum is compressed. Sentiment is drained. Optimism is low.
You do not need to worship indicators to understand this.
After a prolonged downtrend, selling pressure naturally exhausts. Weak hands exit. Leverage gets flushed. Hype disappears.
And what remains?
Stronger holders. Longer time horizons. Patient capital.
Think about it in simple terms.
If a store has a sale for four straight months, the crowd that came for quick flips eventually leaves. What remains are the buyers who see value.
Markets work the same way.
When downside drags on for 120 days, the emotional sellers run out first.
That is why time-based corrections matter.
A sharp crash is dramatic. A slow bleed is exhausting.
And exhaustion changes behavior.
From a trader’s perspective, this is not the moment to expect instant upside.
It is the moment to watch for base building.
Base building is quiet. It is slow. It is boring.
Price stops making aggressive new lows. Volatility compresses. Breakdowns get bought faster.
That is how new rallies start.
Not with fireworks.
With stability.
Another key factor is Bitcoin.
Altcoins rarely rally in isolation. If Bitcoin is volatile or trending down aggressively, alts struggle to hold strength.
But when Bitcoin stabilizes for a few weeks, liquidity starts rotating again. Traders get more comfortable taking risk.
That is usually when altcoins begin catching bids.
The current setup fits that broader pattern.
We have:
• A repeated 120-day downtrend structure.
• Price revisiting major support.
• Momentum indicators sitting at depressed levels.
• Sentiment cooled significantly from prior highs.
This does not mean “only up from here.”
It means the odds are shifting.
Earlier in the downtrend, downside continuation had the edge. Every bounce failed. Selling pressure dominated.
Now the market is closer to balance.
And markets turn when imbalance fades.
If you are sitting in drawdown right now, this context matters.
It reframes the pain.
Instead of viewing it as random collapse, you can see it as part of a structural rhythm that has already repeated twice in this cycle.
Rally. Reset. Rally. Reset.
We are not in uncharted territory.
We are in a familiar phase.
That does not remove risk. It reduces uncertainty.
There is a difference.
Smart traders understand that survival is about timing exposure, not predicting exact bottoms.
During early downtrends, capital preservation is priority.
During late-stage resets, selective accumulation becomes rational.
Notice the word selective.
Not every altcoin will recover equally. Liquidity is more fragmented now. Unlock schedules matter. Token inflation matters. Narrative strength matters.
But at the index level, the environment is becoming less hostile.
And that is the first step.
This is also the phase where patience pays.
Not because the chart looks perfect.
But because panic has already done most of its damage.
The emotional flush has likely happened.
Markets do not need maximum optimism to rally.
They need sellers to run out.
When selling pressure weakens and even small buying demand pushes price up, momentum can flip faster than expected.
We have seen this before.
After long periods of boredom, altcoins often move quickly once the base is confirmed.
The key is confirmation.
Watch for higher lows. Watch for failed breakdowns. Watch for strength on low volatility days.
Those are early signs.
Do not chase every green candle. Do not assume every bounce is the start of a new supercycle.
Think in probabilities.
If the previous two 120-day downtrends marked reset windows before new legs up, then this third occurrence deserves attention.
Not blind optimism.
Attention.
Because cycles repeat until they don’t. And while repetition is not a guarantee, it is information.
For everyday traders, the message is simple.
This is not the phase to panic sell into exhaustion.
It is the phase to plan.
Review your portfolio. Trim weak projects. Focus on quality. Keep cash for flexibility.
And most importantly, adjust expectations.
The market does not reward impatience.
It rewards positioning before sentiment flips.
Altseason does not announce itself in advance. It builds quietly.
By the time social media calls it obvious, much of the easy move is gone.
Right now, the structure suggests we are closer to the end of a reset than the beginning of a collapse.
That distinction matters.
There are no guarantees in markets. Risk always exists.
But when a cycle shows repeating timing patterns, structural support holds, and momentum compresses after months of selling, the environment shifts from defensive to watchful.
And watchful is where opportunities begin.
Altseason comes in waves.
The rally excites everyone.
The reset tests everyone.
The next move usually rewards the ones who stayed patient through both.

#altcoins

過去2年間、私たちは皆がギガブルなときに来るこの120日サイクルを無視してきました。

「悪い週」ではない。
「赤い月」ではない。
4か月間のフルダウントレンド。

現在ドローダウンにいるなら、これは再び少し希望を感じるための最初の本当の理由です。

誰も話していないパターン

Total3（アルトコイン市場キャップを除く）を見てください。

/
) 2024年1月以降。

押しが来ます。
その後、長い下落が続きます。

2024年第1四半期：アルトコインが急騰。

その後、すべてが死んでいるように感じ、バウンスが売られる120日間の下落トレンドに入ります。

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