Based on my analysis, market data, economic news, the market shall stay bullish till the first week of October, then i am going to close my trades and consider a short trade.
During an up trend, the market makers 'mm' will usually drop the market hard and fast but not too hard or too fast, just with the right amount of dumping to make it seem like a reversal is going to happen.
Now there are 2 types of a drop, a retracement and a reversal, the 2nd one is the one we all hate, but the 1st one is the one i call here "Bluff zone".
Bluff zones or retracements are usually a sign of a healthy trend, markets can't withstand going upward all the time, there must be a period of cooling down, these areas where the Market makers make money, because some retailers and even hedge funds bet on short future trades, others start dumping their assets thinking the market is going to crash, which gives the market makers the opportunity to buy the assets at a discount price and also open new short positions so they could liquidate them, they also get to sell some of their bags for a margin of the profit so they don't end up buying the total supply of a coin.
So in general, Retracements or bluff zone as i call them are very beneficial and urgent for a strong uptrend, after all, the money the market makers make from these retracements are used to buy the asset and raise it even higher.
It's crucial that you train your eye to identify a retracement and a reversal and know the difference between them.
A key point to do so is by learning about price action and ditch using your indicators, i feel pity for traders who talk about indicators as if they are a magic ball.
follow me if you want to learn more about trading.
Something is telling me that the war in Ukraine might be heading to an end or at least a long ceasefire.
If this happens, it will have a huge impact on the market.
I remember on Feb 22, 2022, when the war was just 2 days ahead, the markets were dumping like crazy, this will shift back huge sums of money back into the market from the oligarchs who had to extract some of their money to outcome the economic damage caused by the war.
#TUT is currently trading in the discount zone on the weekly time frame, which means price is cheap and could rebound from here any moment, but being in a discount zone alone doesn't guarantee a rebound in an asset, you must add some other elements, and by adding those elements i could say that the chance of a rebound exists at these below price levels organized descendingly:
Which means for example, If the price reaches 0.02270$, it might go up sharply, but the continuity of it going all the way up to 0.03 is not guaranteed, and it might fall again later (in an hour, day, week, etc....) And if it falls again then the next level where the price will stop will be at 0.01678$ and so on.
It's also worth noting that TUT is moving against the market, meaning that if the market is moving upward, TUT is falling and vice versa.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat's managing partner and head of research and Fundstrat's Capital CIO interview on CNBC August 31, 2026: ยท Crypto is the best performing macro asset in the 3rd quarter so far. ยท September and the 4th quarter of this year is going to be institutional allocation into crypto. ยท Crypto 4 years cycle ends this month, so people who turned off crypto on their screens are going to come back. ยท The Korian investors who are huge crypto investors are starting to come back, and volumes are picking up in Korea. ยท If clarity act passes, which could happen this year, Bitcoin and Ethereum would have a huge 4th quarter. ยท Bitcoin could read 6 figures because very few people own crypto. ยท Institutional investors are buying crypto stocks, the volumes have really jumped, and that's a sign they are betting on a great 4th quarter.
If the mid-term elections would not on the horizon, the Feds would raise the rates. - Wharton Professor & WisdomTree Chief Economist: Jeremy Siegel on CNBC today.
Bad Economy doesn't always mean a setback for crypto.
Just look at Covid and how crypto did during COVID, Market makers usually use turmoils that hit world economy to their gain by attracting retailers money through huge pumps in crypto, you just ride the wave and wait for the next buyer who will buyer at a premium price.
Just be careful not to be caught up in their nets.
#TUT is currently trading in the discount zone on the weekly time frame, which means price is cheap and could rebound from here any moment, but being in a discount zone alone doesn't guarantee a rebound in an asset, you must add some other elements, and by adding those elements i could say that the chance of a rebound exists at these below price levels organized descendingly:
Which means for example, If the price reaches 0.02270$, it might go up sharply, but the continuity of it going all the way up to 0.03 is not guaranteed, and it might fall again later (in an hour, day, week, etc....) And if it falls again then the next level where the price will stop will be at 0.01678$ and so on.
It's also worth noting that TUT is moving against the market, meaning that if the market is moving upward, TUT is falling and vice versa.
US ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 up from 54.2 forecasted, This Shows that the services sector has been expanding in August. This suggests that consumer demand and business activity are still holding up.
This is a significantly optimistic development for the crypto market. A resilient service sector is a positive catalyst for risky assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Day: Friday Date: September 11,2026. Event: US CPI announcement. Effect on Crypto: If the CPI is less than expected, that's good for crypto, if it's higher than expected, then we going to see a down turn.
But the magnitude of the down turn will depend on variable aspects.
Why i think the world economy is heading towards a crash and Crypto is not.
ยท Massive national Debt in the Us (40 Trillion $) ยท Inflation is sticky. ยท A.I Boom is being funded by companies borrowing massive amount of money. ยท War in Iran and spiking Oil prices which heat up inflation. ยท Natural crisis like drought happening all over the world (US, Germany, France, serbia, slovakia, romania โฆ ) could contribute to economic stiffness. ยท Ebola risk in Congo. ยท Inflation is sticking at 3.4% in the U.S, and the only way to counter inflation is by either raising interest rates or by raising taxes and both will cause businesses to shrink, thus more unemployment rates.
We already starting to see some cracks, Recently, South Korea stock market collapsed.
Why all of this would benefit crypto?
Well, Shrinking economy means lesser opportunities at the table, imagine if the US stock market starts falling, A.I bubble bursts, Rates doesn't rise too much, and with all the worsening conditions i just mentioned, investors don't like to keep their money standing still, they always like to invest, and the market always has a way to make more money, and only then the only two options to make money would be Gold and Crypto.
Imagine -like what trumps keeps saying- billions and billions of dollars being poured into crypto, this will cause a sharp increase in prices, something that could be compared to the 2021 crypto boom.
What does it mean that the Dutch central bank moved 86 tonnes of gold out of the US.
If you're reading this then probably you are someone intrested in trading, and by so, you should be aware of your economic surroundings. This mean you should read the little bits of news here and there and make your own conclusion.
Yesterday it was announced that the Dutch central bank moved 86 tonnes of its gold reserves out of the US and Canada to London so it could be traded more easily citing โincreasing geopolitical unrestโ.
This is what the news outlets will tell you, but on a wider analysis, looking at the overall state of the market, the A.I Bubble everyone seems to acknowledge, the fiscal dominance the U.S is heading towards, the 16 Sept Feds meeting, the bond market states in the US, the Overly bought stocks market, you know things are looking good for the U.S Economically speaking, and if the U.S Economy isn't doing well, the whole world Economy will follow.
Now the most important question would be, how would that affect Crypto?
Well, my personal opinion is 'bad' on the Short/Med term, 'good' on the long term. Economy means money& investment and investors love nothing more than keeping their money safe, If they sense any downslide they don't hesitate to extract their cash bags out of whatever they had it in, so if things are starting to look ugly and sh!t is about to hit the fan, they will start bailing out of US stock market and USD and converting their money into other assets.
Other Assets would most definitely include BTC and Gold, thus we will see sharp rises in interest in Bitcoin driven by Money outflow from the US stocks.