The recently released financial disclosure that most traders have failed to notice is the real meaning it has for position allocation.
Trump’s financial disclosure filings were submitted to the Office of Government Ethics on June 30. Annual cryptocurrency income reaches as much as $1.4 billion.
That’s the current president of the United States—this country’s largest single beneficiary of cryptocurrency gains—now signing legislation that manages the asset class he profited the most from.
As a trader, you have to think about how this affects the way you model regulatory risk. The CLARITY Act has already been launched in the Senate; the GENIUS Act has passed; pro-crypto appointments are spread across every relevant agency. When the president’s largest source of disclosed income last year was exactly this asset class, you will price those legislative timelines and agency decisions very differently.
The market doesn’t price intent. It prices outcomes. And now, supporting every regulatory decision is an incentive structure unprecedented in this space.
Prices are rising into the marked area that we highlighted,
We’re seeing the relief rebound we had expected earlier, then the final push down toward the low 50,000s.
From my timeline, everyone is calling that “the bottom is in,”
I don’t think that’s the case. In my view, this upward push is only taking into account where the monthly candlesticks close—just a relief-style pump.
One thing is certain: if we start dropping from these levels toward the low 50,000s,
that would be one of the most severe bull traps we’ve seen, and it would wreck a lot of people.
Before we get a decent pump higher, liquidating all excessively leveraged positions is actually reasonable.
Remember, July still could end on green, because our monthly target is 58.6k—which is very close to the low 50,000s, so it’s easy for us to close above it.
Overall, I think July will be a fairly volatile and choppy month, followed by a bearish August, which may mark the bottom of this bear market.
The price has fallen and swept the levels below 58k,
but some liquidity has not yet been cleared. If we return to 58k again, I’m very certain we will quickly clear all of it.
After 58k, the only strong support level I can see is at 55k.
This means that if we break below 58k again, the sweep could extend down to the 55k level.
We are currently at a critical level, where price may be rejected here and move lower.
However, if we can’t bounce back from here, the next area I see is around 62k.
In my view, price will test below the 58k level again, trap more sellers, and then bring a true relief bounce.
I used the term “relief bounce” because I don’t think we’ve truly bottomed out. I believe we will only see a modest rebound,
then return to the low 50k area—that’s when the real bottom will form. In extreme cases, it could sweep the 49k lower-liquidity wick area to clear over-leveraged longs,
and then kick off the bull market.
Overall, I believe we will move lower again before the bullish July run.