SabTheTrader

Check out this SPCXx IPO Campaign on Binance Wallet, but make sure to understand the rules before diving in. 🚀

Basically, eligible users can submit their subscription intentions through Binance Wallet for a chance to snag SpaceX-related tokenized securities, SPCXx.

But let’s be clear:

SPCXx isn’t directly buying SpaceX stock, nor does it grant any shareholder rights in SpaceX.

It’s more like getting price exposure to SpaceX’s potential IPO through xStocks.

The minimum subscription amount is 100 USDC; the indicative price for each SPCXx is 135 USDC, excluding fees, plus a 5% underwriting service fee.

So, if we go by the indicative price, the estimated total cost per token would be around 141.75 USDC.

Of course, keep in mind:

1⃣ Submitting a subscription ≠ guaranteed allocation

2⃣ SPCXx ≠ direct ownership of SpaceX stock

3⃣ The final issue price isn’t fixed

4⃣ Some regional users may be unable to participate

5⃣ Always read the rules and assess the risks before joining in

What I find noteworthy here is:

Pre-IPO, tokenized securities, and US stock assets on-chain are no longer distant concepts.

More and more exchanges and wallets are slowly bringing traditional market asset exposure to users on-chain.

Binance Wallet’s SPCXx IPO Campaign feels like a new milestone in this trend.

What was once a distant Pre-IPO exposure for the average user is now becoming visible to more people at a lower barrier and more on-chain.

So, I’ll treat it as a case study.

It’s not about blindly chasing SpaceX; it doesn’t mean these types of products are fully matured either.

But the increasing appearance of traditional asset exposure in on-chain wallets is definitely a trend worth watching.

If you’re interested, go check out the rules.

Just make sure to read them carefully before participating. 🤣

* NFA, DYOR.

#币安钱包推出spcxxipo

$RIVER There are signs of a slight inflow of funds starting today. 🌊

This rally may be related to the official launch of Season 6, as well as a newly announced product from the official preview.

S6 runs from July 1 to September 30, and is the first full operating Season under Conversion 3.0.

In addition to continuing to roll out the following this season:
• $RIVER staking and governance
• satUSD cross-chain applications
• partner campaigns
• River4FUN points campaign

The official also specifically mentioned that River will enter a new market that is being reshaped by new technology, and will release a new product during S6.

Although the product itself hasn’t been directly announced yet, based on the wording, the market has already started trading this expectation.

Coming back to the 4-hour chart:
$RIVER previously kept falling all the way, then stabilized around 3.60 to form a short-term bottom. After that, the price surged quickly and reclaimed the 4.00 level.

Right now, I’m watching two key areas:
Around 4.20: the first resistance for the short term.
If it can hold effectively, the price may further test the 4.60–4.80 zone.

Downside, I’ll continue to watch 3.60.
As long as this level doesn’t break, the short-term rebound structure is still intact. If it breaks, the prior bottoming logic needs to be reassessed.

So this isn’t about blindly chasing higher prices just because “there’s a new product.” It’s about whether the market will confirm this expectation using volume and price structure.

There’s a catalyst in the news, and the charts are starting to change too. Next, we’ll see whether RIVER can truly turn the trend back around. 🐱

*NFA, DYOR

The U.S. says the action is intended to respond to Iran’s attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire conditions first.

Iran then launched retaliatory strikes, firing missiles and drones at U.S.-linked military targets located in Kuwait and Bahrain. At the same time, Iran accused the United States of undermining the ceasefire and subsequent diplomatic efforts.

So, more accurately, it is not yet that the U.S. and Iran have officially announced withdrawing from or terminating the ceasefire agreement. Rather, both sides have already resumed substantive hostilities, and the ceasefire is entering a state where it could collapse at any moment.

And the most market-relevant thing to watch this time remains the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier, as the ceasefire took effect and some merchant ships resumed passage, the market began to unwind the war premium, and oil prices clearly fell.

Now, with merchant ships again coming under attack, the U.S. and Iran are re-engaging over control of the strait, and the market needs to reassess three issues:
1️⃣ Will navigation through the Strait of Hormuz be obstructed again?
2️⃣ Will Iran expand its strikes on merchant ships or energy facilities?
3️⃣ Will the U.S. retaliation escalate from limited military targets to a broader scope?

Since the news broke over the weekend, the traditional market has not yet fully repriced it.

After the market opens on Monday, first watch whether Brent and WTI gap higher, and whether gold, the U.S. dollar, and the VIX rise in sync.

For the crypto market and the Nasdaq, the more direct short-term pressure comes from risk-off sentiment and rising energy prices.

But this also should not be understood simply as: “war means oil must surge and risk assets must definitely fall.”

If merchant ships can still maintain passage and the strikes remain limited to military facilities, the market may only trade the war premium briefly. The truly dangerous signal would be a widespread shutdown of navigation in the strait, or attacks on key oil infrastructure.

So instead of rushing to chase the headlines, it’s better to first focus on the real conditions of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Whether the ceasefire agreement has been formally torn up is one thing; whether crude oil can be shipped out smoothly is where the market will actually cast its vote with capital.

#美伊停火协议破裂

Take profit, feeling happy 🥳

$VELVET 看看今天能不能成功止盈，小仓位赚个喝咖啡的钱 ☕️

On Tuesday (the 23rd) morning, I spotted a short opportunity on $BTC .

My entry logic was:
It broke below Saturday's consolidation zone, so I jumped in when it retraced to the 4h fvg.
Target was set at the previous lows.

I took my profits before bed on the 25th. The risk-to-reward ratio wasn't 4R, but it was good enough.

In contrast, $ETH has been plummeting in a rough manner. I thought that after the ETH budget cut news it would drop more smoothly, but turns out 🤷‍♀️

It just returned to my entry price, so I manually closed my position.

For those trading the Nasdaq $NQ every day, well, yesterday's drop of 2.2% is actually pretty 'normal' given the recent market action.

Recently, the Nasdaq's volatility has really picked up, with ±2% daily moves happening multiple times:
June 5: -4.18%
June 10: -1.98%
June 11: +2.54%
June 15: +3.07%
June 23: -2.20%

So in the context of the current market, it's not as dramatic as the so-called 'Black Tuesday' 😅

Moreover, this drop was quite concentrated:

- The semiconductor index fell by about 7.9%
- Micron $MUB dropped around 13%
- Nvidia $NVDAB fell about 4.1%
- Yet the Dow only slipped 0.09%
- Of the 11 S&P sectors, 6 are still in the green

This indicates that it's not a full-blown market panic sell-off, but rather a capital shift away from previously high-flying AI, chip, and overvalued tech stocks.

Micron is set to hold its Q3 earnings call on Wednesday, June 24 at 4:30 PM EDT (which translates to June 25 at 4:30 AM Beijing time, and 5:30 AM Japan time). As one of the focal points of this semiconductor sell-off, we'll see if its results and guidance can stabilize chip stock sentiment and give the Nasdaq a breather.

#Nasdaq down 2.2%

The Ethereum Foundation is set to slash its budget by 40%. The news is legit, but the cut pertains to the operational budget for 2026, not a 40% reduction in ETH holdings, nor is Ethereum halting development.

The foundation also confirmed the layoff of 54 positions, about 20% of the total staff.

So, this isn’t just about saving cash; it's a clear organizational trim and financial adjustment.

What impact does this have on ETH?
The layoffs won’t stop the network from producing blocks, nor will they directly change ETH's issuance, burn rate, or staking rewards.

The real concern is whether the reduction in budget will weaken R&D capacity:
Will upgrades be delayed?
Will core developers leave?
Will client security, privacy, and ZK research slow down?

Vitalik also acknowledged that this will result in losing some experienced engineers and research capability, so it can’t simply be interpreted as "higher efficiency post-layoffs."

However, a budget cut isn’t all doom and gloom.

In the past, the foundation needed to sell off some ETH or other assets to keep the lights on. With reduced expenses, theoretically, the amount of ETH that needs to be sold will decrease. Plus, the foundation has already started staking around 70,000 ETH, hoping to use the staking rewards to bolster its treasury.

That said, a 40% budget cut doesn’t mean that ETH selling pressure will drop directly by 40%; that's not the primary factor driving the price.

So my take on this situation is:

Short-term bearish.
The market sees "40% budget cut + 20% layoffs," and the initial reaction is likely to be one of lack of funds, turmoil, and slowed development. Especially since ETH is already lagging behind BTC, such news can amplify negative sentiment.

But in the medium to long term, it depends on whether Ethereum can continue to deliver.
If upgrades proceed smoothly, and core developers don’t keep leaving, the foundation’s finances might actually become healthier, and this adjustment could simply be a necessary trim.
If subsequent upgrades are delayed, security capabilities decline, and the community further fractures, then it will genuinely turn into a bearish fundamental for ETH.

A 40% cut is indeed alarming, but what truly determines ETH's value isn’t how much less the foundation is spending, but whether Ethereum can continue to push forward after these cuts.

#以太坊基金会将削减40%预算

SpaceX pre-market dipped over 4.6%.

The news is legit, but this drop seems more like a snapshot of a specific moment, with actual pre-market fluctuations around -3.5% to -5.4%.

Today’s most direct bearish news is that KeyBanc initiated coverage on SpaceX with a neutral rating and no target price.

The reasoning is straightforward:
SpaceX's business is indeed scarce, but at the current price, it has already baked in too much of the future.

According to KeyBanc's estimates, SpaceX's current valuation is approximately:
29 times 2027 sales;
71 times 2027 EV/EBITDA.

In other words, the market is not just buying how much Starlink makes today, but is also prepaying for the future success of Starship, Starshield, AI, and even orbital data centers for many years to come.

Any slight delay in progress could lead to a compression in valuation.

However, I don’t think this represents a sudden deterioration in SpaceX’s long-term narrative.

SpaceX's IPO price was $135, and it once surged to $225.64 after going public.

Even considering the pre-market price of about $176, it has pulled back around 22% from its peak, but it’s still about 30% higher than the IPO price.

So, this drop feels more like the scarcity premium post-IPO is starting to wane, as the market shifts from 'FOMO on SpaceX' to 'seriously calculating how much SpaceX is really worth.'

What’s truly noteworthy is its share structure.

SpaceX has over 13 billion shares outstanding, but currently, less than 5% are freely tradable.
When the float is so small, price increases can be amplified by buying pressure; once the hype dies down, or the market starts trading on unlocking expectations, declines can also be magnified.

The $175.5 level is also interesting.

$135 × 1.3 = $175.5.
It’s close to today’s pre-market price and relates to additional unlocking conditions, which could become an important battleground in the market.

If it can hold around $175 after the official open, this would resemble normal price discovery.

If it breaks down on volume, we can keep an eye on:
$160.95: closing price on the first day of trading
$150: opening price on the first day of trading
$135: IPO issuance price

Before the first earnings report and the first round of unlocking truly take place, SpaceX is unlikely to be a quiet stock on the rise. 🚀

#spacex股价盘前跌4.6%

This week's key economic data and event calendar, for those trading US stocks, take a look before you dive in.

* Data source: Jinshi Data

Does anyone know when $O is going to hit Binance's spot market?

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to its lowest level since 1983.

The latest data shows that the US SPR is down to about 340 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of around 8.9 million barrels.

This news aligns perfectly with our previous analysis on the US-Iran deal.

As US-Iran relations cool, expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz increase, and the market begins to price in the return of Middle Eastern crude oil, pushing the war premium out further.

However, at the same time, the US's own strategic oil reserves are now at a 40-year low, with Cushing inventories also nearing low levels.

These two situations are not contradictory.

In the short term, we look at:
Whether the deal will be finalized, if the strait can reopen, and how much more crude oil will re-enter the market.

In the mid-term, we assess:
Whether the actual supply recovery is fast enough and how much inventory the US has left to buffer against risks.

In essence, the peace agreement is responsible for driving oil prices down.
But low inventories serve as a reminder to the market that oil prices might not stay low as easily as we think.

Current prices:
WTI: dropped from about $87.71 to $80.66, a cumulative decrease of about -8.0%;
Brent: dropped from about $90.38 to $82.92, a cumulative decrease of about -8.3%;

This indicates that the market is already pricing in the US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, what we really need to monitor next is whether oil prices can hold at these lower levels.

If the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz falls short of expectations, or shipping and insurance costs don't decrease, or if the US-Iran deal faces further complications, the rebound in crude oil could happen quickly.

And once the US starts to refill the SPR, that will also create renewed demand for crude oil.

Therefore, this phase is still relatively bullish for NQ and US stocks in the short term:
Falling oil prices help ease inflation expectations and provide some breathing room for tech and growth stock valuations.

But the safety net in the oil market is already quite thin.

The market currently believes in peace. Just hope this peace doesn’t waver again.🤣

#美国战略石油储备创1983年来新低

When will the shares in SpaceX held by employees unlock?

A lot of folks are waiting for the cash-out pressure from employees and early shareholders after the SpaceX IPO. Some have even set up their short positions in advance.

On June 15, during the US trading session, the SpaceX stock has already broken through the high of its first trading day; entering June 16 in the Asian market, related contracts and after-hours quotes continue to rise.

This shows that the short-term chasing funds are still strong, and the market isn't in a rush to trade the unlock selling pressure. Relying solely on the logic of "employees are going to sell their stocks" to short might not be that easy.

However, it's still important to note the unlock timeline.

According to the current plan, SpaceX will announce its first quarterly report after going public, which is on the second trading day after the Q2 2026 report. Up to 20% of the restricted shares that qualify for early unlock will be released first.

Note that this isn't 20% of SpaceX's total shares, nor will all employees' shares be released at once.

It's just that portion of shares that qualify for early unlock, with a maximum of 20% released first.

Additionally, if within the 10 trading days leading up to the first quarterly report, $SPCX has at least 5 trading days where the closing price reaches or exceeds 30% above the issue price, which is $175.50, an extra 10% may also unlock.

From the current price perspective, $SPCX has already hit this threshold.

But the condition is not just a single intraday breach; it must fully satisfy the "5 out of 10 trading days" closing price requirement.

So what we really need to focus on is not just a fixed date, but:

When the first quarterly report is announced, where the stock price stands at that time, and whether the market has already priced in this selling pressure before the unlock. The market generally expects the first quarterly report to be released between late July and early August.

Around early August, we might see the first wave of potential selling pressure from employees and early shareholders.

Of course, unlocking doesn't mean everyone will sell on the same day.

Employees are still restricted by internal trading windows and insider information rules.

And in this market sentiment, even if employees really do reduce their holdings, we need to see if the buy-side can absorb the chips directly.

Trading in SpaceX post-IPO might not be as simple as "unlock = crash" as everyone thinks. Let's continue to calmly wait for trading opportunities.

#马斯克预测spacex年收入万亿美元

💻Behind the convenience of Bedrock 2.0: Is earning simpler, but the underlying logic more opaque?

Honestly, the best state for DeFi products is when you can just hit one button and get it done.

Who wants to dive into three chains, five protocols, and sift through dozens of pages of docs just to earn some yield? 😆

But as more complex strategies get automated and hidden behind products, I can't help but ask:
Where did my BTC end up?
Are the yields coming from staking, lending, market-making, or other structured strategies?
How many protocols and counterparties were involved along the way?
During market volatility, can I still exit smoothly?

@Bedrock 2.0 aims to create a smart yield engine that helps users automatically allocate and route their BTC capital. This direction can indeed make it much easier for the average user to participate in BTCFi.

But convenience shouldn't mean opacity.

The easier the entry, the more critical it is to clarify the underlying capital pathways, sources of yield, fees, risk exposure, and redemption mechanisms.

Otherwise, users might only see one APY, while the actual risk could be a whole strategy chain.

So I believe Bedrock 2.0 really needs to prove that it can automate yields while still keeping users informed: what their money is actually doing.

This will also impact how the market views $BR .

Whether a yield engine can sustain itself in the long run ultimately comes down to the verifiability of strategies, transparency of risks, and whether users can smoothly exit during downturns.

#bedrock

When us regular users see BTCFi, the first reaction is actually:

What’s this?

Is there a chance?
Can we make some profit?
Will there be a new narrative?
Is there funding interest?

After all, we’re not here to write research reports. 😆

But the problem is, many BTCFi opportunities look appealing at first glance, but once you dive in, regular users quickly get deterred by a bunch of complexities:

You need to cross-chain, swap assets, understand staking logic, check yield sources, and assess where the risks lie.

So I think one of the biggest opportunities for @Bedrock 2.0 is not just "providing BTCFi opportunities", but rather bridging the gap between regular users and these opportunities.

In other words: letting users understand clearly without having to dive headfirst into a bunch of complex protocols:

Where can my BTC go?
Why is there yield here?
What risks are behind this yield?
What connections are there in this ecosystem?

If Bedrock 2.0 can lower the entry barrier for BTCFi participation, then what it brings might not just be individual yield products, but actually enable more regular users to step into the BTCFi narrative.

Opportunities are certainly important. But whether an opportunity can be embraced by more people often determines whether it can evolve from a niche narrative into a larger ecosystem story. 🙌🏻

#bedrock $BR

Wow, looks like President Trump won't be able to sign it on his birthday after all✍️

Tradfin: *IRANIAN NEGOTIATING OFFICIALS STATE AGREEMENT NOT FINALIZED AND WILL NOT BE SIGNED SUNDAY: FARS

Tradfin: Iranian negotiators declare the agreement isn't finalized yet, won't be signed on Sunday: FARS

#USIranNegotiationsPalestinianSideStatesAgreementTextIsSet

Can we keep pushing this ride up around $COAI 0.5?

Pakistan claims that the US-Iran deal could be finalized within the next 24 hours.

The news is legit, but don’t rush to interpret it as 'the US and Iran are about to sign, and the war is officially over.' 😆

This statement comes from the Prime Minister of Pakistan, to be precise, it’s expected that the final text of the agreement will be confirmed within 24 hours.

However, Iran has already stated: no signing on Sunday.

So right now, it’s more like —
Negotiations have indeed made substantial progress, and we’re getting closer to a deal, but 'completion within 24 hours' is still just Pakistan's optimistic expectation as a mediator, not an official announcement from both the US and Iran.

The market has actually already traded this news in advance.
On Friday:
US stocks rallied,
NQ was up about 0.7%,
Hang Seng rose nearly 2%,
Oil dropped over 3%,
Gold and the dollar didn’t react much.

This also indicates that the market's most trusted logic right now is:
Deal materializes → Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation → Oil supply risks decrease → Oil prices continue to shed war premiums → Inflation pressure eases → Positive for NQ and US stocks.

But what we really need to watch on Monday isn’t how high NQ opens, but whether oil prices will keep dropping and if they can maintain low levels.

If oil prices continue to fall and NQ holds above Friday's highs, it means the market is truly starting to believe in the deal.

If NQ opens high but oil prices can’t budge, or rebound quickly, then it’s likely just another headline-driven market.

So this news can be seen as optimistic for now, but we can’t treat it as if the deal has already been finalized.

After all, the biggest risk with the recent US-Iran news hasn’t been a lack of information.
It’s been too much information. 🤣
#巴基斯坦称美伊协议或将24小时完成

Many projects have their own tokens. I used to wonder: why do projects need to issue their own coins? Is it just to let everyone trade the ups and downs?

As I started to dive deeper into projects, I realized that tokens can actually serve many purposes.

For example, user participation, ecosystem incentives, governance voting, resource allocation, and even collaboration tools for the long-term development of the entire protocol.

So, looking back at @Bedrock , $BR can't just be understood as an isolated trading symbol.

It's normal for retail traders to focus on price fluctuations. The most direct feedback in the market is whether the price is performing and if there’s capital willing to pay attention.

But if you want to further understand the expectations of BR, you still need to go back to Bedrock 2.0 itself.

If Bedrock 2.0 aims to create a BTCFi yield layer, bringing BTC capital into more yield scenarios, then BR acts more like a connector within this ecosystem.

To put it simply, it connects three main things:
1️⃣ Why are users willing to participate in Bedrock?
2️⃣ How are incentives distributed within the ecosystem?
3️⃣ How do long-term participants influence the protocol's direction?

So, when looking at $BR , I think it can be viewed from two layers:
1️⃣ In the short term, consider market sentiment, liquidity, and trading heat.
2️⃣ In the long term, can Bedrock 2.0 really kickstart the BTCFi scenarios and give BR more practical use and incentive value within the ecosystem?

Price is certainly important, but behind the price, there ultimately needs to be a story, a scenario, and capital willing to keep buying in.

#bedrock $BR