The market has been quite lively lately, hasn't it?

$BTC It surged from 87,000 to 97,000, as if the bull market has returned. But if you're only cheering for the rise of BTC, you might be falling into a classic 'trend trap.'

As a trader who has been closely monitoring the market for nearly a month, I want to share with you some different perspectives. This round of increase may very well be just a strong rebound in a bear market and is likely to end before the end of January.

Why? Three core logical points support this judgment.

1. Current Market Reality: A One-Man Show

The truth of this rebound is: only BTC is rising, while mainstream altcoins are being collectively abandoned.

Take a look at these two irrefutable pieces of evidence:

• The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken: throughout the rebound process, this ratio has not risen but fallen. This indicates that funds have not flowed into Ethereum and altcoin sectors at all; the so-called 'altcoin season' is just a shadow.

  

• The strength and weakness hierarchy is exceptionally clear: the order of strength in the market is BTC > ETH > SOL/ZEC/XRP. Coins like SOL and ZEC do not outperform the market during rebounds, and when the market slightly corrects, they fall faster than anyone else. This clearly tells us that funds are only hedging or short-term trading in BTC, and have not formed the sector rotation and widespread increase typical of a bull market.

When a market only sees the leaders rise and the followers lie flat, you should be alert: Is this a real bull market, or a 'trap'?

Two, Key Time Window: The 'Judgment Day' at the end of January

A key piece of information that many people overlook: The U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory bill, originally scheduled to be announced on January 15, has been postponed to the end of January.

What does this mean?

This month's strong rebound in BTC coincidentally occurs during this major uncertainty event's 'vacuum period'. The market takes advantage of the 'news window' to execute a classic rebound.

And when the news really lands at the end of the month (whether good or bad), it could very well be the endpoint of this 'news vacuum-driven' rebound. At that time, when the shoe drops, expectations will be fulfilled, and the momentum of the rebound may dissipate in an instant.

History repeats itself: The market likes to speculate on expectations amid uncertainty, and realizes profits after certainty is established.

Three, Technical Analysis: The rebound has reached the 'high-pressure zone'

From a purely technical perspective, this rebound is entering a zone where risks outweigh rewards.

For BTC: The weekly level is on the right side of a large 'M top'.

The current price has just rebounded to the key Fibonacci resistance level near $98000. This is the first critical threshold determining whether the rebound is a 'reversal' or an 'end'. Even if it can break through briefly, the upper area of $100000-$104000 will be a convergence of multiple technical structures and psychological pressure, making it difficult to achieve in one go.

For ETH, SOL, ZEC, etc.: Their situation is even worse.

• ETH: The weekly chart has a risk of forming a 'triple top' right shoulder, with a powerful bull-bear dividing line at $3450-$3660.

  

  • SOL & ZEC: The weekly chart is also on the right side of an 'M top', with a weaker rebound, clearly a preferred high short target in a downtrend. SOL's $147-$149 and ZEC's $450 are hurdles they find difficult to overcome.

    

Four, Current Trading Strategy: Extreme Patience

Based on the above judgment, my strategy becomes very simple and requires extreme discipline:

Absolutely do not chase high BTC: Near the key resistance zone of 98000-100000, the risk-reward ratio is very unsuitable for chasing long positions. Better to miss out than to make a mistake.

Keep a close eye on weak coins, but absolutely do not act prematurely: I am firmly bearish on $ETH , $SOL , #zec and other weak coins, but my short position will not enter the market now. I must wait for both conditions to be met:

• Condition One: They rebound to their respective key resistance levels (ETH's 3450, SOL's 147, ZEC's 450).

• Condition Two: The market (BTC) shows a clear sign of stagnation or reversal at the resistance level.

Waiting for the end-of-month signal: Treat the end of January as an important decision-making time window. Closely monitor the resonance effect between news and key technical levels.

Five, to summarize

The market is currently in a 'split moment' where the noise of BTC masks the weakness of altcoins. For traders, this is not a time to FOMO, but a time requiring extreme patience and clear discipline.

Close your eyes and ignore the noise of BTC's rise;

Open your eyes and closely monitor the performance of weak coins at key resistance levels;

Prick up your ears and listen for the turning signals that may emerge in the market at the end of the month.

Only then will it be time to take action.

While others are chasing high out of greed, we are calmly laying out for the next high-certainty opportunity. Trading is a game of waiting.