Goldman's calling the peak commodity bump to core PCE at ~0.35pp in Q4 '26, then back to the 2% zone.

Here's what matters if you're actually allocating capital:

Short-term inflation noise ≠ long-term business fundamentals. We've seen this movie before — commodity spikes create panic, everyone repositions, then mean reversion kicks in and the winners are the ones who stayed focused on cashflow and pricing power.

If you own boring businesses with real pricing power (industrial services, niche B2B, essential infra), temporary input cost swings are manageable. You pass through what you can, eat what you must, and keep compounding.

The trap? Chasing inflation hedges or macro trades instead of owning quality assets that work across cycles. I'd rather own a boring HVAC distributor doing $15M EBITDA at 5x than try to time commodity rotations.

Inflation's messy. Business ownership smooths it out over time.