After falling to $67 on February 6, Solana (SOL) continues to face persistent selling pressure. The asset is now down more than 72% from its all-time high of $295, and several technical indicators suggest that the downtrend may not be over yet.
While bearish price structures dominate higher time frames, certain on-chain metrics are beginning to flash early signs of long-term value zones. The key question for traders: Is SOL heading toward $50 — or preparing for a structural rebound?
Technical Breakdown Points Toward $50–$57 Zone
Recent price action confirms a major technical shift. On the 2-day chart, SOL broke below the neckline of a Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) pattern near $120 on January 30. This pattern is widely viewed as a bearish reversal structure when confirmed with strong volume.
Using the classical measured-move method — calculating the distance from the head to the neckline — the projected downside target comes in around $57, representing approximately 30% downside from recent levels.
On the daily timeframe, SOL is now retesting support near the lower boundary of a bear flag formation around $80. A confirmed daily close below this level would validate the continuation pattern, opening the path toward the bear flag target near $48.
If that scenario plays out, total drawdown from current levels could extend toward 40%+, reinforcing the broader macro downtrend structure.
MVRV Bands Suggest Long-Term Value Zone Approaching
Despite bearish chart patterns, on-chain metrics tell a more nuanced story.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing bands — an on-chain indicator measuring whether holders are in profit or loss relative to their average cost basis — show that SOL is approaching the lower boundary near $73.
Historically, SOL has frequently tested or slightly breached the lower MVRV band before staging powerful rebounds:
March 2022: SOL rallied 87% within three weeks after touching the lower MVRV region near $75.
June 2022: Similar recovery pattern emerged following oversold conditions.
December 2020: Price rebounded strongly after testing deep value territory.
However, exceptions exist. During the collapse of FTX in November 2022, SOL plunged nearly 70%, ultimately bottoming near $7 — significantly below historical MVRV support levels.
This highlights a key reality: On-chain value zones can identify potential accumulation areas, but macro shocks can override statistical norms.
Institutional Demand via Spot ETFs Remains Strong
Interestingly, institutional appetite appears resilient despite price weakness.
Spot SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have recorded inflows on 66 out of 74 trading days since their launch in late October 2025. According to data from SoSoValue, spot SOL ETFs attracted $2.9 million in net inflows on Tuesday alone, pushing cumulative inflows to $877 million.
Globally, Solana-based investment products saw $31 million in net inflows during the week ending February 13.
Sustained capital allocation during a downtrend may indicate that institutional investors are positioning for long-term structural growth rather than reacting to short-term volatility.
What Comes Next for SOL?
Short term, the $80 level remains critical. A decisive breakdown could accelerate momentum toward $57 or even the $48–$50 region.
On the other hand, if SOL stabilizes above the lower MVRV band and institutional inflows persist, the current range may evolve into a gradual accumulation phase.
Markets often transition from distribution to accumulation quietly — before price momentum visibly shifts.
Final Thoughts
Solana stands at a technically vulnerable level, with chart patterns signaling further downside risk. Yet on-chain valuation metrics and ETF inflows present a counterbalance to the bearish narrative.
Is SOL approaching a long-term opportunity zone — or is another leg down inevitable?
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This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal analysis. It is not investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
