Crypto markets could face heightened volatility this week as investors await the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs. The ruling may impact the legality or scope of disputed trade measures, potentially affecting equities, commodities, FX, and digital assets.
🔹 Macro impact on crypto
Tariff rulings typically shape overall market sentiment rather than directly moving crypto. Historically, trade tensions trigger an initial risk-off response—strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring stocks.
Crypto often reacts in two stages: an immediate liquidity-driven drop alongside other risk assets, followed by a divergence as investors seek alternative stores of value. For example, during prior trade escalations, Bitcoin initially fell with stocks but later stabilized as dollar strength eased. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) often drives this dynamic: a stronger dollar restricts liquidity and weighs on speculative assets like crypto, while dollar weakness supports risk appetite.
With February already volatile, the Feb. 20 ruling is more likely to act as a catalyst than a standalone trigger.
🔹 Technical perspective
The total crypto market cap (TOTAL) is around $2.32T, rebounding from early-February lows near $2.1T. Daily RSI sits in the mid-30s—recovering from oversold levels, indicating easing selling pressure but still weak momentum.
TOTAL remains below its 50-day SMA ($2.82T) and 200-day SMA ($3.37T), signaling the broader trend is still corrective. Unless the market reclaims the 50-day average, rallies may face resistance in the $2.6–$2.8T range.
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