Bitcoin ($BTC) is witnessing a notable shift in the market dynamics with the return of short-term holders. In this respect, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has surpassed the 1.0 mark. As per the data from Axel Adler Jr., this development has occurred for the 1st time within a week, indicating that recent transfers are again being conducted at gains instead of losses. Hence, the move highlights a renewed trader optimism following recent corrections.
STH SOPR crossed back above 1.0 for the first time in a week: short-term holders are selling at a profit again. But MVRV is still 17% below the norm – the structural overhang hasn't gone anywhere. Every bounce will be met by sellers who just want to break even.new ☕️ Adler AM👇… pic.twitter.com/o9yj4g7IBA
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) February 16, 2026
Bitcoin SOPR Jumps above 1.0, Suggesting Short-Term Holders Are Back in Profit
The on-chain statistics reveal that Bitcoin’s ($BTC) Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has jumped above the 1.0 spot for the first time within one week. In this respect, the recent transfers are again going through execution but at gains instead of losses. Even then, the structural challenges are still present, with the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) still seventeen percent below the historical norm thereof.
Specifically, the STH SOPR serves as a key metric when it comes to tracking whether short-term $BTC holders are making a loss or profit on selling. So, when above 1.0, the metric underscores gains. On the other hand, dropping below 1.0 suggests losses and capitulation. Additionally, the STH SOPR, as well as the 7-day simple moving average (SMA-7D) thereof, have notably fluctuated from January 2023 to January 2026.
During the aforementioned period, the SMA-7D of STH SOPR has repeatedly lost the profit threshold whenever the market faced a downturn. However, the exclusive spike above the 1.0 level points toward a likely positive shift, although sustainability is still uncertain. Irrespective of the positive SOPR indication, the market analysts raise caution over the 17% drop in MVRV ratio from the long-term average. Keeping this in view, several $BTC holders are even now underwater in line with cost basis.
Sell-Off Risks Persist Amid Lagging MVRV Levels
According to Axel Adler Jr., the MVRV and SOPR’s interplay signifies the delicate balance in the market structure of Bitcoin. Therefore, while short-term Bitcoin holders are now again witnessing gains, there is a possibility of consistent headwinds for likely price rallies. Thus, the market participants will closely observe if the current SOPR level persists above 1.0. Nonetheless, if MVRV does not normalize, there is a likelihood for the market to stay vulnerable to huge offloading from many $BTC holders.
