Key points:

  • Bitcoin briefly surged toward $69,000 after cooler US CPI data, even as ETF outflows hit $410 million and rate cut odds remained under 10%.

  • Standard Chartered cut its 2026 BTC target to $100,000 and warned of a potential drop to $50,000 amid weak institutional flows.

News - Bitcoin climbed as high as $69,190 on Bitstamp following softer-than-expected January CPI data. Core inflation came in at 2.5% while headline CPI printed at 2.4%, slightly below forecasts.

Despite the relief rally, expectations for a March rate cut remain limited, with CME data showing less than a 10% probability of a 0.25% reduction. While crypto reacted positively, US equities traded modestly lower and the dollar index attempted a rebound after an initial dip.

However, ETF flows told a different story. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $410.4 million in outflows, marking six negative days out of the past 10. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $157.6 million in withdrawals. Assets under management (AUM) have fallen toward $80 billion from their October 2025 peak near $170 billion.

Institutional conviction wavers - Derivatives data shows mixed signals. Open interest dropped to $15.5 billion, suggesting leverage cleanup. Funding rates flipped positive and the three-month annualized basis rose above 3%, indicating tentative institutional optimism.

Yet traders continue paying premiums for short-term downside protection. Liquidations totaled $256 million in 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for $112 million.

Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 Bitcoin forecast from $150,000 to $100,000, warning prices could fall to $50,000 before recovering. CryptoQuant also placed realized price support near $55,000, noting that market cycle indicators remain in a bear phase.

Whale activity and capitulation signals - On-chain stress has intensified. Realized losses surged to $2.3 billion, ranking among the largest loss events in Bitcoin’s history. Short-term holders appear to be driving much of the selling.

Meanwhile, a large wallet transferred thousands of BTC to Binance over recent weeks, including a 5,000 BTC deposit on February 11. The string of transfers continued with another 2,800 BTC sent on the latest recorded day. Large exchange inflows are often interpreted as potential sell signals.

With Bitcoin trading between $62,000 and $71,000 since early February, analysts expect volatility and sideways action to remain the base case as institutional positioning stays uneven and macro risk repricing continues.

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