This Is Bearish for Metals. Tactical for Risk. $ESP
Yesterday’s report that Russia is considering a return to U.S. dollar–based settlement as part of a broader economic alignment with President Trump materially changes the macro narrative.
For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been one of the primary drivers behind the de-dollarization trade. That theme became a cornerstone macro positioning driver:
Central banks reducing USD exposure
Treasury selling
Gold accumulation
Structural USD weakness
That flow dynamic was a major contributor to the decline in DXY and the powerful rally in gold and silver.
If Russia now pivots back toward a dollar-based system, the structural de-dollarization thesis weakens materially.
That means:
Incremental USD demand returns
DXY finds structural support
The “currency debasement” trade loses momentum
Historically, a strengthening USD pressures commodities, precious metals, equities, and crypto.
Metals are the most vulnerable.
Gold and silver have been heavily supported by reserve diversification flows and anti-USD positioning. If that bid fades, the unwind could be significant — potentially multi-year.
Equities and crypto are different.
Yes, a stronger USD is typically a headwind for risk assets in the short term. But this development introduces something markets value even more: clarity.
A Russia–U.S. energy alignment would likely increase global supply, easing inflation pressures. That reduces the probability of renewed Fed hawkishness and lowers macro uncertainty.
Remember: BTC rallied in 2023 during rate hikes and QT.
Risk assets don’t require easing — they require visibility.
If this geopolitical shift solidifies:
Near term: USD strength, metals pressure, tactical risk-off
Mid to long term: bullish equities and crypto on reduced uncertainty
Gold and silver, however, may have already printed their macro cycle highs.
