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Bitcoin Soars $1.5K in Seconds as US CPI Shows Inflation Slowing

According to Cointelegraph: Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a dramatic price surge on June 12, skyrocketing $1,500 in mere seconds following the release of U.S. inflation data. The unexpected drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided a boost to BTC and other risk assets, reversing days of price declines in the cryptocurrency market. BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView CPI Triggers a 3% BTC Price Surge Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView recorded a rapid BTC price jump to $69,636 on Bitstamp. This surge occurred as the May CPI print indicated that inflation was cooling faster than anticipated. On a month-on-month basis, CPI remained unchanged, and the year-on-year figure was 3.3% — both 0.1% lower than forecasts. CPI % change chart. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics In an official press release, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed:   "The all items index rose 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending May, a smaller increase than the 3.4-percent increase for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.4 per cent over the last 12 months." Market Reaction and Upcoming FOMC Meeting The CPI report was a boon for risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins, which had suffered in the run-up to the data release. As markets now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for later in the day, the decision on interest rate adjustments and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s economic commentary will be closely watched. Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group Financial Commentary and Expectations Reacting to the CPI data, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro expressed optimism. He suggested that the latest CPI figures could give Powell the leeway to consider easing the current tight financial policies characterized by high interest rates. "The stage is set for J Powell to talk easing. Let’s go," he summarized on X (formerly Twitter). Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, highlighted the impact on the U.S. dollar and Treasury Yields: "The Dollar and Treasury Yields are dropping significantly as the markets are expecting rate cuts to be happening. This could be a massive sign for Altcoins and Bitcoin." Future Prospects and Market Sentiment With Bitcoin erasing the losses incurred from the previous week’s U.S. employment data, the market remains volatile ahead of further economic reports. The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicate that market bets are shifting towards a potential rate cut in the September FOMC meeting, now over 70%. The surprising dip in U.S. inflation has reignited optimism in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. As investors await the FOMC’s decisions, the possibility of a more Bitcoin-friendly financial policy easing becomes increasingly likely.
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Investment Strategies for Private/KOL Rounds: A Six-Month Review

According to PANews, over the past six months, 189 private/KOL rounds have been invested in, and the best allocation strategies have been identified. A good product and a community built around the project are great, but they cannot guarantee further growth of the token, especially if the token economic model is designed for the next 1-2 years. The fundamentals should address the problem of high pressure, which is why this information is being shared. The best token economics to invest in include TGE unlocking 5-7%, which allows for low token circulation (leaving a lot of room for rapid market value growth), stable and growing token prices, and the opportunity to close positions from investor push in a bull market. The circulation supply at TGE time is 11-15%, with the unlocking system as follows: 11-15% at launch, 20% at the end of the first year, 30-35% at the end of the second year, and then linear unlocking for several years. A lock-in period of 3-6 months is recommended. Investing within a 12-month lock-in period is a very foolish idea because our unlocking will occur in a bear market. However, a 6-month lock-in period can help retail investors have more confidence in the token, which will bring more purchases and additional liquidity. If retail investors are confident, then investors and market manipulators will be very cautious. This means that we will grow steadily over several months or years, which is why we will sell our tokens at the market high point. The team's vesting period is after the investors (rule), with linear vesting. The best allocation is 30-40% for the community/ecosystem, 15% for investors, 15% for founders, 25% for capital reserves, 5% for advisors/KOL, and 5% for market makers and CEX. Ideally, the unlocking ratio on the day of the TGE (Token Generation Event) is 4% for investors/advisors, 5% for public sales, 6% for the community/reserve, totaling 15%. In conclusion, if you decide to invest in any altcoins, please check according to the standards described above. If you decide to invest in any private/KOL rounds, please also carefully check the standards provided (but sometimes, you can look for better, faster deals). Remember, if you trade, you are gambling. If you analyze and operate according to the news, you are a master. Trading based solely on hype, smart money movements, or technical analysis is a bad idea. You also need to follow the fundamentals and current news (this is the only secret to success).
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Bitcoin vs. Buffett: BTC Holders' 104% CAGR Outshines 'Steady Growth' Portfolio

According to Cointelegraph: Since its trading debut in 2011, Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently delivered impressive returns, boasting an average annual return rate of approximately 104%. This phenomenal growth rate dwarfs the returns of Warren Buffett's renowned portfolio and even the broader U.S. stock markets. The comparison highlights the contrasting risk-reward profiles and performance of these two investment strategies over varying timeframes. Warren Buffett's portfolio vs. U.S. stocks portfolio. Source: Lazy Portfolio ETF Warren Buffett's Portfolio: Less Risk, Steady Gains Performance Metrics: - CAGR: 10.03% - Standard Deviation: 13.67% over the past 30 years Warren Buffett's portfolio, which includes top holdings such as Apple, Bank of America, American Express, Coca-Cola, and Chevron Corp, has yielded an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.03% over the past 30 years. The portfolio's lower standard deviation relative to broader U.S. stock portfolios underscores its reduced volatility and risk. Buffett's investment philosophy highlights long-term value investing, prudent risk management, and a focus on fundamentally robust companies. Bitcoin's annual returns. Source: Curve.eu Bitcoin's Extraordinary Performance Performance Metrics: - CAGR: ~104% since 2011 By comparison, Bitcoin's performance has been extraordinary. Since its debut in 2011, BTC has achieved an average annual return of around 104%. This astronomical CAGR outstrips the returns from Warren Buffett’s portfolio and U.S. stock portfolios significantly. Despite its higher volatility, Bitcoin's returns have attracted both institutional investors and large corporations. Gold's average annual return performance chart. Source: Curve.eu Comparative Analysis Risk and Reward: - Warren Buffett’s Portfolio: Offers impressive, consistent returns with lower volatility, suitable for risk-averse investors. - Bitcoin: Provides much higher returns with significant volatility, attracting those willing to embrace higher risk for potential rewards. Market Perception and Adoption Gold vs. Bitcoin: - Gold: Has provided a modest average annual return of 6% over the past decade. It offers stability and acts as a hedge against economic downturns. - Bitcoin: Often referred to as "digital gold," it has gained favour as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. This perception has driven its appeal as a valuable asset. Spot U.S. Bitcoin ETFs cumulative inflows. Source: Farside Investors  Institutional Adoption - MicroStrategy and Tesla: These companies have added Bitcoin to their reserves, validating its role as a strategic asset. - Spot Bitcoin ETFs: The launch of these funds has further entrenched Bitcoin's status among institutional investors. Volatility Comparison Despite its reputation for volatility, Bitcoin has recently shown lower price fluctuations compared to several S&P 500 stocks, including Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia. This trend suggests a maturing market with potentially stable long-term returns. While Warren Buffett's portfolio represents a conservative, long-term investment strategy with consistent returns and manageable risk, Bitcoin offers staggering potential returns paired with significant volatility. The decision between these two investment strategies ultimately hinges on the investor's risk tolerance and financial goals. BTC holders have enjoyed exceptional gains—yet those gains come with the caveat of higher risk and potential downturns. Conversely, Warren Buffett's risk-averse strategy has proven its merit over decades, appealing to those who prioritize steady growth and stability. As Bitcoin continues to evolve and gain acceptance as a major asset class, its relationship with traditional portfolios and mainstream financial instruments will likely continue to develop. Whether chosen for its potential for high returns or its emerging stability, Bitcoin remains a compelling option in the modern investment landscape.
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QCP Capital: Payrolls-Induced Bitcoin and Ether Dip Seen as 'Buy the Dip' Opportunity

According to CoinDesk: In the wake of hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs data that dampened hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, QCP Capital, a Singapore-based trading firm, sees the price drop in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as a prime "buy the dip" opportunity. Market Reactions to Payroll Data: - Jobs Report Impact: Friday's non-farm payrolls data revealed the U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs in May, significantly surpassing the estimated 185,000 and April's revised 165,000. -Immediate Market Response: The jobless rate ticked up to 4%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-on-month, above the expected 0.3%. This led to a reduction in the likelihood of a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut in September from 85% to 60%, sending risk assets including cryptocurrencies lower. Cryptocurrency Price Movements: - Bitcoin and Ether: Post-report, Bitcoin fell almost 3% to $68,400, down from near $72,000, while Ether and the CoinDesk 20 index mirrored Bitcoin's downward trend. - QCP Capital's Stance: Despite the downturn, QCP Capital views this as a buying opportunity, anticipating at least one Fed rate cut in the future. Global Interest Rate Dynamics QCP Capital noted that keeping U.S. rates elevated would be challenging as other central banks ease their borrowing costs. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada recently cut rates, initiating a wave of rate reductions within the Group of Seven (G7) nations. MacroMicro data shows an increase in rate cuts by central banks this year, which QCP Capital believes could lead the Fed to follow suit. Strategy and Market Sentiment QCP Capital's market update highlighted:  - Rate Cut Expectations: The markets are expected to increasingly price in at least one Federal Reserve rate cut amid global easing trends. -Opportunity: The trading firm recommends buying the dip, anticipating that the global trend of rate cuts will bolster demand for alternative investments like cryptocurrencies. - Bullish Flows: QCP observed a bullish sentiment, with increased activity in selling aggressive puts and buying call spreads, especially in Bitcoin. The recent dip in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, triggered by stronger-than-anticipated U.S. jobs data, is seen as a strategic entry point by QCP Capital. As global central banks move towards easing, the firm anticipates the Federal Reserve may also adopt a similar stance, creating favorable conditions for a potential rebound in cryptocurrency markets.  
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10x Research: Stablecoins Slowdown Preventing Bitcoin from Reaching New All-Time Highs

According to Golden Finance: Bitcoin is facing a significant hurdle in breaking its all-time high, which 10x Research attributes to a notable slowdown in stablecoin minting following the Bitcoin halving event. Bitcoin Market Dynamics: - Current Range: Bitcoin is currently near the top of its trading range and is struggling to break through its previous all-time high. - Bitcoin Halving Impact: The halving event on April 20 has led to a significant slowdown in the minting of stablecoins, impeding Bitcoin's upward momentum. Stablecoin Trends: - Stablecoin Minting Decline: There has been a marked decrease in the issuance of new stablecoins post-halving. - Large Wallet Holding Decline: The number of wallets containing more than $10 million in stablecoins has also declined, indicating reduced liquidity inflows into the Bitcoin market. Exchange Withdrawals: - Significant Withdrawals: Over the past month, approximately $6.75 billion worth of Bitcoin (about 97,000 BTC, nearing 100,000 BTC) was withdrawn from exchanges. - Affected Exchanges: Major withdrawals were observed from U.S.-focused exchanges, including Kraken (down 55,000 BTC or $3.8 billion) and Coinbase (down 24,000 BTC or $1.7 billion). The reduced minting of stablecoins and the decline in large stablecoin wallet holdings suggest that the liquidity available for purchasing Bitcoin has decreased, constraining demand and price growth. The significant withdrawal of Bitcoin from exchanges further indicates that investors may be moving their assets to cold storage, possibly reflecting a cautious or long-term holding strategy rather than immediate trading. Bitcoin's struggle to break through its all-time high can be attributed to several factors, including the post-halving slowdown in stablecoin minting and substantial withdrawals from major exchanges. As these factors contribute to reduced liquidity and trading volume, Bitcoin's path to reaching new price levels faces substantial challenges. Market participants will need to closely monitor stablecoin trends and exchange flows to gauge future price movements.
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U.S. May Jobs Report Complicates Fed's Policy Direction and Rate Cut Speculations

The unexpected May jobs report has significantly altered investor expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, making the policy direction more complex, according to Jinshi. This development comes as a surprise to many who believed in the likelihood of rate cuts driving U.S. stock indexes to new highs. Economic and Market Reactions: - Interest Rate Cut Speculation: Investors had anticipated that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates this year, a premise that bolstered large-cap stocks and technology-focused U.S. stock indexes to reach new highs in June. - May Jobs Report Impact: The unexpected jobs report for May has challenged the notion of forthcoming rate cuts, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Expert Opinions: - Jeffrey Cleveland (Payden & Rygel): He suggests that if economic growth continues and a recession is avoided, stock markets could continue their upward trajectory, potentially hitting record highs over the next 6 to 12 months. He also notes that holding Treasury bonds could remain favorable if the Fed holds off on rate cuts while inflation stays elevated. - Sean Snaith (Analyst): He asserts that the unexpected jobs report for May is not favorable for the Federal Reserve and undermines any expectations for a rate cut this year. The May jobs report has introduced uncertainty into the financial markets, impacting investor sentiment and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future moves. The strong labor market data implies that the economy might not need the stimulus of a rate cut, while robust employment figures could keep inflationary pressures high, complicating the Fed's policy stance. Strategic Implications For Investors: - Stock Market Prospects: A continued strong economy without a recession may fuel further stock market gains. Investors should watch economic indicators closely to gauge the likelihood of new record highs. - Treasury Bonds: If the Fed refrains from cutting rates amidst high inflation, the relative attractiveness of holding Treasury bonds might improve as they provide a safe haven with stable returns. For Policymakers: - Policy Complications: The Federal Reserve faces a challenging environment where strong employment data and persistent inflation could limit the scope for rate cuts. Policymakers will need to balance the dual objectives of fostering economic growth and controlling inflation. The unforeseen strength in the May jobs report has upended previous assumptions about the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, adding complexity to the policy outlook. 
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Unlocking the Potential of MEV on BNB Chain: A Guide for Builders and Validators

Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) refers to the maximum profit that can be extracted by reordering, including, or excluding transactions within a block by miners, validators, or other network participants. In this article, we will explore the mechanics of MEV and how BNB Chain’s Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS) model is reshaping the MEV landscape. What is MEV? MEV arises from the decentralized nature of blockchain technology. Unlike traditional financial systems where a central authority dictates transaction orders, blockchain transactions are ordered based on protocol rules. This opens opportunities for miners and validators to optimize transaction sequencing for profit. MEV incentivizes network participants to maintain and secure the blockchain. By allowing miners and validators to profit from transaction ordering, MEV provides financial motivation to support the network. This can improve security and stability, as participants are more likely to invest in better hardware and infrastructure to maximize their gains. MEV-driven activities can increase market efficiency by enabling arbitrage opportunities and liquidity provision, which are crucial for the healthy functioning of decentralized exchanges and financial protocols. However, MEV also presents challenges, such as potential centralization and the risk of unfair transaction prioritization, which must be managed to ensure a balanced ecosystem. Common MEV Strategies In decentralized exchanges (DEXs), miners and validators employ several MEV strategies to maximize profits: Arbitrage: Exploiting price discrepancies between different markets by front-running other traders. Back-running: Placing sell orders after large buy orders to benefit from buying pressure. Sandwich deals: Placing buy and sell orders around a target transaction to profit from price fluctuations. Flash loans: Borrowing and repaying funds within a single transaction to enable profitable trades without upfront capital. Strategies have been developed to mitigate MEV exploitation, such as Fair Sequencing Services (FSS) for decentralized and fair transaction ordering, off-chain transactions, batching to minimize the impact of transaction reordering, and protocols that allow users to set maximum slippage limits. Introducing BNB Chain’s MEV Solution To address MEV challenges and leverage its opportunities, the BNB Chain ecosystem has developed comprehensive MEV solutions supported by Blockrazor, blocksmith, and NodeReal. The BNB Chain open-source repository maintains the builder list and corresponding RPC endpoints. Key Features of BNB Chain’s MEV Solutions Integrated Validator Support: Approximately 23 out of 40 active validators on BNB Chain have integrated with MEV providers. Standardized Builder API: Proposed in BEP 322, this API allows validators to accept builder registration in a permissionless manner, enabling seamless integration with multiple builders and fostering competition. Enhanced Transparency: Robust data reporting and transparency mechanisms allow all participants to track and understand MEV activities, crucial for optimizing MEV processes and maintaining the blockchain's integrity. Challenges in Current MEV Solutions Despite advancements, challenges remain in the current MEV landscape on BNB Chain: Complexity for Validators: The lack of a standardized builder API requires unique implementations for each MEV solution, complicating integration and maintenance. Fragmentation and Lack of Open Marketplace: Individual MEV providers lead to fragmentation. An open marketplace for MEV searchers could streamline processes and enhance decentralization. Opacity in Revenue and Data: The inability to track and understand MEV revenue generation and participant contributions hinders fair and efficient assessments. Robust data reporting is essential to address this. New Proposal: BEP 322 for an MEV Supply Chain Solution BNB Chain is enhancing its MEV landscape through the Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS) model introduced in BEP 322. This model separates validators from block builders, allowing builders to create and propose blocks to validators, who then select the most profitable one. Key aspects include: Builder Registration: Permissionless builder registration enables seamless integration with multiple builders. Block Building and Proposing: Builders propose blocks using the unified API, streamlining production. Fee Reconciliation: Automated fee reconciliation mechanisms simplify the fee process and enhance transparency. Fair Profit Distribution: Profits from MEV are distributed among searchers, builders, validators, and BNB holders. Builders use a private mempool to protect users from attacks and offer better pricing. Benefits of BNB Chain’s MEV Solutions For Builders Increased Profitability: Implement diverse pricing mechanisms, offering free services to searchers while charging validators. Competitive Marketplace: A standardized builder API fosters competition, innovation, and efficiency. For Validators Maximize Rewards: Integration with MEV providers improves profitability by 7% to 15%. Simplified Integration: A unified builder API reduces integration complexity, lowering maintenance efforts and minimizing security vulnerabilities. For Wallets and Users Improved User Experience: Users benefit from better transaction execution and reduced front-running risks. Fairer Transaction Processing: Standardized and transparent MEV processes promote equitable transaction prioritization. Conclusion MEV is a natural and essential aspect of blockchain technology, driving profitability and efficiency. BNB Chain’s PBS model addresses common MEV challenges, fostering a competitive, transparent, and fair MEV ecosystem. Builders can maximize profitability with diverse pricing mechanisms and validators can simplify integration and maximize rewards. Users benefit from improved transaction execution and fairness.
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Weekly Market Highlights - Decentralized stablecoin protocol Ethena reaches US$3B TVL

7 June 2024 Macro/TradFi Pro-Bitcoin President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele has been sworn in for another five-year presidential term after a landslide victory in February.  In the wake of a glitch which caused the listed price of several securities listed on the New York Stock Exchange to drop by up to 99.9%, Chainlink co-founder and CEO Sergey Nazarov commented and reminded the public that legacy financial systems are prone to critical vulnerabilities because of their highly centralized architecture. Crypto L1/L2: Over US$3B worth of Ether has been removed from centralized crypto exchanges since the May 23 approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”) in the United States BNB’s market value has surpassed that of Starbucks, reaching US$101.75B. TON has officially announced the opening of registration for the fourth season of its Open League (S4). This season will include competitions in the categories of tokens, applications, NFTs, and DeFi. The deadline for applications is set for June 11th. DeFi: The Uniswap Foundation — the organization which oversees the decentralized exchange Uniswap — has postponed May 31’s highly anticipated vote on UNI staking and delegation rewards.  Safe (formerly Gnosis Safe), an EVM smart account ecosystem, has announced the launch of its native exchange Safe{Wallet} on Arbitrum. The development of which is supported by CowSwap. Stablecoins: Ethena Labs USDe stablecoin, which maintains its peg through arbitrage mechanics and a yield-returning cash-and-carry trade, has reached a supply of US$3B tokens just four months after its public launch in February. Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, has criticized the upcoming Markets in Crypto-Assets (“MiCA”) regulations, particularly challenging the rule requiring stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in bank deposits. Paxos International announced that it will be issuing an interest-bearing stablecoin called the Lift Dollar (“USDL”). The USDL will be regulated in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (“ADGM”) and will pay overnight yield on the interest Paxos International earns on the reserves backing it. NFT: A collection of Non-Fungible Tokens (“NFTs”) previously owned by the now-bankrupt hedge fund, Three Arrows Capital, is set to be auctioned at Sotheby's on June 18. The collection includes one Golden Ape BAYC, two MAYC, and one BAKC. Magic Eden, a notable NFT trading market, has announced the launch of its mobile wallet iOS version testing. Others: The decentralized AI interaction protocol, Wayfinder Foundation, has announced the launch of its PRIME token functionality for community participation and development. Users can now visit the website to lock their PRIME tokens and start participating in the Wayfinder ecosystem. Robinhood Markets agrees to purchase Bitstamp, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, for $200 million in cash. This acquisition marks Robinhood’s largest deal to date and is part of its strategy to expand its cryptocurrency offerings. The Sandbox, a leading user-generated content (UGC) metaverse platform, announced that it has raised US$20 million of convertible promissory notes with a US$1 billion valuation cap. The strategic funding was led by Kingsway Capital and Animoca Brands with participation by LG Tech Ventures and True Global Ventures.  Latest Binance Research Publications  Check out our latest publications: Monthly Market Insights - June 2024 The Future of Bitcoin #3: Scaling Bitcoin Breakthrough DeFi Markets Explore our Binance Research website for more project and macro research. For more frequent market updates and insights, follow us on Twitter @BinanceResearch. That’s a wrap! Binance Research About Binance Research: Binance Research is the research arm of Binance, the world's leading cryptocurrency exchange. The team is committed to delivering objective, independent, and comprehensive analysis and aims to be the thought leader in the crypto space. Our analysts publish insightful thought pieces regularly on topics related but not limited to, the crypto ecosystem, blockchain technologies, and the latest market themes. General Disclosure: This material is prepared by Binance Research and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, cryptocurrencies or to adopt any investment strategy. The use of terminology and the views expressed are intended to promote understanding and the responsible development of the sector and should not be interpreted as definitive legal views or those of Binance. The opinions expressed are as of the date shown above and are the opinions of the writer, they may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Binance Research to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Binance. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. This material is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell in any securities, cryptocurrencies or any investment strategy nor shall any securities or cryptocurrency be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the laws of such jurisdiction. Investment involves risks.
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BNB Price Surges Amid U.S. Bond Yield Dip and Ascending Triangle Breakout

According to Cointelegraph: The native cryptocurrency of Binance, BNB, has seen a surge in price, hitting a new record high of around $716 after a 4.50% intraday increase, outshining the broader crypto market's gain of 3.5%. This rise seems largely connected to macroeconomic factors and technical indicators rather than a specific fundamental catalyst. BNB/USD versus TOTAL crypto market capitalization four-hour performance chart. Source: TradingView The decline in U.S. bond yields coincides with the recent gains seen by BNB, and by extension, the crypto market as a whole. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, a widely-watched benchmark, dropped to 4.332% from 4.63% a few days prior, during the same period BNB's price appreciated by over 20.75%. This negative correlation suggests that as the traditional financial market faces uncertainty, investors are turning to crypto, considering it as an alternative investment. BNB/USD versus US10Y daily performance chart. Source: TradingView Technically, BNB's price surge points to a breakout from its current ascending triangle pattern. When a price vacillates between rising support and horizontal resistance, this indicates an ascending triangle. Typically, in an uptrend, the pattern ends when the price breaks above the resistance and increases as much as the triangle’s maximum height. Source: Yahoo Finance As BNB's price breaks above the triangle's resistance, it potentially targets a further rise toward around $800, an approximately 15% increase from current prices. Conversely, the daily relative strength index (RSI) for BNB has reached the overbought threshold above 70, indicating a possible price correction or consolidation. Fed interest rate projections. Source: Bloomberg As BNB’s price tests its 1.618 Fibonacci retracement line at around $708 as resistance, the outlook for a correction toward the 1.00 Fibonacci retracement line at roughly $630, about an 11.50% decrement from current prices, further solidifies. BNB/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
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Ethereum Poised to Break $4K Barrier in June Following Predicted Ether ETF Approvals and Whale Accumulation

According to Cointelegraph: Ethereum's native token Ether is set to break the $4K benchmark in June, bolstered by anticipation of potential Ether ETF approvals and large-scale Ether accumulation by cryptocurrency 'whales.' Emerging from a falling wedge pattern, a traditional bullish reversal pattern, on May 20, ETH has demonstrated 67% growth thus far in 2024. ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView On-chain data resource Santiment reported a 0.5% increase in Ether holdings by entities with a balance between 10 million and 100 million ETH since May 20, when rumours of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reconsidering spot Ether ETF denials peaked. As the news of SEC's official approval emerged, ETH's price ascended by 19.25%. Ether supply distribution among whales. Source: Santiment Starting from June, Ether (ETH) entered the breakout phase from falling wedge patterns and bull flag patterns, configuring a potential target of $4,255 by the end of the month. As Ethereum whales, entities holding a balance between 10 million to 100 million ETH, continue accumulating, the market sees a decreasing Ether supply in cryptocurrency exchanges, indicating a growing sentiment for long-term holding. Ethereum exchange reserves. Source: CryptoQuant Furthermore, approval for spot Ether ETFs predicted for late June, encapsulated by BlackRock's updated Form S-1 for its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) with the SEC, is expected to boost the valuation and push Ether's price above the $4,000 threshold over the next 30 days. Spot Bitcoin ETF cumulative inflows. Source: Farside Investors
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Ethereum Price Strengthens against Bitcoin Owed to Network Activity and Anticipated Spot Ether ETFs

According to Cointelegraph: Despite a steady start, Ethereum (ETH) has gained momentum since mid-May, primarily due to the anticipation surrounding the approval of spot Ether ETFs in the United States. Consequently, ETH has managed to outperform Bitcoin (BTC) in recent weeks, thanks to the growth in network activity and increased excitement about the launch of Spot Ether ETFs. Ether, Bitcoin two-week performance. Source: TradingView Over the last ten days, ETH outperformed BTC and top layer-1 tokens by registering a 23% uptick. A bullish divergence in the ETH/BTC weekly chart suggests an ongoing trend reversal. ETH/BTC ratio. Source: TradingView Greater on-chain activity is supporting Ethereum outperformance, evident from a 7.75% increase in transaction volume among top Ethereum decentralized applications (DApps) last week. Furthermore, the number of unique smart contracts on Ethereum rose from 37,870 on May 20 to 38,066 on May 31, reinforcing Ethereum's growth. Source: Michaël van de Poppe An exciting factor adding to ETH's bullish momentum against Bitcoin is the expected launch of Spot Ether ETFs as early as June. Market participants anticipate that these ETFs will drive ETH to new highs, with Wall Street potentially seeing it as a bet on Web3's growth. Some believe Ethereum's price could reach $10,000 this cycle as institutional capital is geared towards Ether ETFs. Number of unique smart contracts on Ethereum. Source: CryptoQuant
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OTC Weekly Trading Insights (05/29/2024)

Audius crypto, a Web 3 equivalent to music streaming platforms like SoundCloud and Spotify, saw its native token, $AUDIO, soar 27.4% last week with a 21x volume increase on Convert. Audius was named one of the top 14 music tech startups to watch by Business Insider, which boosted the token's value and drove up demand. BounceBit ($BB), the first project launched in the Megadrop zone, had a tremendous gain of 92.4% last week, with the trading volume jumping 381.0% on Convert. BounceBit is a leading project in the CeDeFi infrastructure space, providing institutional-grade yield products, restaking use cases, and CeDeFi as a service to make high-yield opportunities available to all. The strong performance came after the project team announced a roadmap to democratise high-yield Bitcoin investing by combining centralised and decentralised finance. Last Thursday afternoon, the SEC approved the 19b-4 form for Ethereum spot ETFs, clearing the way for ETH spot ETF approval. Uniswap ($UNI) saw a surge in trading volume on its decentralised platform, which accounts for 48.9% of total DEX volume. Moreover, the Uniswap V4 introduction by the project team fueled the demand for this governance token. Meme coins continue to play an important role in the market, with ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE) and Pepe ($PEPE) outperforming and gaining market attention. Last week, $PEPE experienced double-digit trading volume growth on Convert, while $PEOPLE saw triple-digit trading volume growth. Overall Market The above chart shows the ETH price movement in the last three months. Last Thursday, the US SEC finally approved the 19b-4 forms for Ethereum spot ETF applicants, paving the way for the final approval of ETH spot ETFs. ETF issuers must wait for the SEC to approve the S1 forms before listing their ETFs on the stock market for investors to purchase. Typically, it takes another one to two weeks. On Thursday, before the SEC website published the approval of 19b-4 forms, ETH price fluctuated, first rising to $3,950 before the US market opened, then rapidly falling below $3,500 at the US market close due to the lack of clarity of the SEC decision. The high volatility (over 10% change from top to bottom) was priced correctly in the options market, with near-tenor ETH options trading at more than 110% implied volatility. The implied volatility rapidly dropped to the normal range after the announcement was made. Following the SEC announcement, we saw some ETH sales during the Asia hours, and demand increased after the price reached the green bar shown in the chart. Demand came in consistently, pushing the price into the red bar, which represents a strong resistance area at the $4,000 level. We expect the resistance level to be broken with the announcement that the S1 forms have been approved by the SEC, and we could see another 10% room to run before the ETFs are available in the stock market. Options Market The above table shows the 25-delta skew of BTC and ETH options with different tenors. Last week, before the SEC approved the 19b-4 forms on ETH ETF applications, we saw a heavily skewed market behaviour towards puts on ETH near-tenor options, indicating that options traders were purchasing downside protection against the "sell the news" behaviour.  This week, the 25-delta skew on ETH options of various tenors is all positive, indicating that options traders are optimistic about ETH's recent price movement, with longer-tenor options showing a stronger bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, sentiment on BTC options is less bullish, with only 0.44 readings for 7-day expiry. However, sentiment indicates more bullishness for longer-term options.  According to the table above, the market is strongly bullish on both BTC and ETH over the next two months, with ETH outperforming. This observation supports our previous prediction that the market correction that began in March is coming to an end, and that BTC may reach a new all-time high this summer, paving the way for the start of the altcoin season. Macro at a glance  Last Wednesday (24-05-22) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes revealed that it might take longer than previously thought to confidently achieve a sustainable inflation rate of 2%. Many participants expressed readiness to tighten policies further if the inflation risks developed to warrant such action. With the market wary of possible further delays in Federal interest rate cuts, U.S. equities closed in a slump, with the S&P and Nasdaq indexes down by 0.77% and 0.70%, respectively. Nonetheless, the crypto market performed better, largely due to robust demand for Ethereum before the potential approval by the SEC on ETH ETFs. Last Thursday (24-05-23) US initial jobless claims dropped to 215k last week from 223k the week before, better than the estimated 220k.  The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for May was recorded at 50.9, surpassing the projected 50.0. Furthermore, the S&P Global U.S. Services PMI came in at 54.8, significantly exceeding the expected 51.2. This indicates that US business activities are expanding. Manufacturers reported an increase in prices across various inputs, suggesting potential growth in goods inflation in the coming months. Last Friday (24-05-24) The durable goods orders in the U.S. documented a growth rate of 0.7% month-on-month in April, surpassing the projected decrease of 0.9%. On Tuesday (24-05-28) U.S. consumer confidence climbed to 102.0 in May, marking a significant rebound from April's 97.5, and beating the expected 96.0. This robust consumer confidence implies potential increases in demand for goods and services, which could result in more persistent inflation. Later this week, we have US GDP in the first quarter of 2024 The Eurozone's CPI reading for May, which could provide additional insight into the ECB's potential rate cut in June. The US PCE index in April, which will provide further insights into US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.   Convert Portal Volume Change The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.  This week, our trading volume on Convert increased significantly, with the Megadrop zone showing the greatest percentage increase. Last week, BounceBit ($BB), the first project launched in the Megadrop zone, had a strong performance and attracted a lot of demand to trade this token. The trading volume surged 381.0% compared to its first-week trading volume. The Fan Token zone saw a 72.0% increase in trading volume on Convert last week. Santos FC Fan Token ($SANTOs) is the primary driver of volume growth in this zone. During the same time period, volume in the NFT zone increased by 36.3%. Audius ($AUDIO) and Origin Protocol ($OGN) are the two main contributors to the high trade demand. Why trade OTC?   Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API.  Email: trading@binance.com for more information. Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!
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