marketstructure

L'Altseason non è morto, è semplicemente evoluto. Mentre la maggior parte dei trader aspetta il tipo di pump parabolici che hanno visto in precedenza, la realtà di questo ciclo racconta una storia diversa. Ecco perché le regole del gioco sono cambiate.
1️⃣ La correlazione con Bitcoin è più forte che mai
▫️Nei cicli precedenti, alcuni altcoin si sono disaccoppiati e hanno pompato forte in modo indipendente.
▫️Oggi, la maggior parte degli altcoin segue da vicino BTC.
▫️Perché: La liquidità è più stretta, le istituzioni dominano i flussi e la volatilità macro favorisce prima BTC.

“Se non sai chi è la liquidità di uscita... potresti essere tu.”
La maggior parte dei trader pensa che i mercati siano una questione di previsione. Non lo sono. I mercati riguardano il trasferimento di liquidità. E in entrambi i casi, azioni e cripto, una domanda è importante: Chi sta comprando al top... e chi sta vendendo a loro?
Che cos'è la liquidità di uscita?

La liquidità di uscita è semplice: è l'acquirente che consente a un giocatore più grande di chiudere la propria posizione. Quando il denaro intelligente si accumula all'inizio... Hanno bisogno di qualcuno a cui vendere in seguito.
Quel “qualcuno” è spesso:

$BTC is sitting nearly 50% below its October peak.
Fear & Greed just printed 8.
Analysts are throwing out $10K targets.
And yet… retail isn’t gone.
This isn’t just volatility.
This is a cycle stress test.
Let me break down what I’m actually seeing beneath the noise.
The First Thing That Stood Out
While mainstream headlines scream “crypto winter,” something quieter is happening:
Retail flows on exchanges like Coinbase show dip buying.
Spot balances in $BTC and $ETH haven’t collapsed the way they typically do during full-blown capitulation phases.
Now pause there.
In real bear market bottoms (2018, late 2022), retail disappears.
They don’t “buy the dip.”
They uninstall the app.
That hasn’t happened yet.
That doesn’t mean bullish.
But it tells me conviction hasn’t fully broken — and late-cycle corrections often require that final psychological snap.
The $10K Bitcoin Narrative
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone recently floated the idea of Bitcoin reverting toward $10,000 if equities roll over.
The macro thesis is straightforward:
US equities stretched on valuation
Volatility compressed
Gold and silver gaining relative strength
Liquidity conditions tightening
If the S&P 500 were to retrace sharply, Bitcoin — still behaving as a high-beta liquidity asset — could mirror that downside.
Is $10K insane?
No.
Is it guaranteed?
Also no.
Bitcoin doesn’t move on doom projections.
It moves on positioning, leverage, and exhaustion.
The Indicator I Care About More Than Headlines
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for long-term holders is sitting around ~0.36.
Translation:
Long-term holders are still comfortably in profit.
Historically, true macro bottoms form when:
Long-term holder NUPL turns negative
Strong hands go underwater
Seller exhaustion completes
We are not there yet.
And that’s important.
Cycle lows tend to form when even the most convicted wallets feel pain.
MVRV Just Entered Accumulation
According to on-chain data providers like CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has re-entered the historical accumulation zone.
The last time this happened in size? Mid-2022.
And what followed wasn’t an instant rally.
It was another leg down before the real base formed.
Low MVRV = undervaluation.
But undervaluation ≠ immediate reversal.
Sometimes it just means you’re early.
I’ve learned that lesson personally.
40%+ of Supply Underwater
Roughly 43% of circulating supply is currently at a loss.
That matters more than short-term price action.
When nearly half the network is underwater:
Weak hands feel pressure
Forced sellers emerge
Strong hands begin absorbing
But here’s the nuance:
Extreme fear can persist longer than most traders can remain solvent or emotionally stable.
That’s where most accounts get chopped.
What This Actually Feels Like
This doesn’t feel like 2019.
Psychologically, it resembles mid-2022:
Retail still somewhat engaged
Long-term holders still profitable
Macro tightening but not broken
Narratives shifting from hype to fundamentals
Valuations being repriced
That tells me we’re likely in a compression phase, not necessarily the final flush.
What I’m Watching Now
I don’t care about dramatic price targets.
I care about:
Are long-term holders distributing or accumulating?
Is exchange supply declining?
Is leverage getting flushed from the system?
Are funding rates resetting structurally?
Are miners holding or selling into weakness?
On-chain absorption shows up before headlines flip.
That’s where edge lives.
My Positioning (Bias, Not Advice)
I’m not aggressive yet.
I’m:
Selective
Patient
Watching for emotional exhaustion
Looking for structural deleveraging
If NUPL turns negative…
If long-term holders go underwater…
If retail sentiment truly breaks…
That’s when asymmetric opportunity historically appears.
What Most Traders Are Missing
Everyone is debating:
“Is $10K coming?”
“Is the bull market over?”
The better question is:
Are strong hands absorbing supply quietly?
Markets don’t bottom when fear appears.
They bottom when fear exhausts.
We’re close.
But we’re not fully broken yet.
And in every cycle I’ve studied, the final flush always feels unnecessary — almost unfair.
That’s usually the opportunity.
If this breakdown helped you see beyond the headlines, follow for more cycle-based analysis.
I don’t trade narratives.
I track positioning.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoCycle #OnChainAnalysis #Marketstructure

La maggior parte dei trader non perde a causa di un cattivo tempismo.
Perdono a causa di una cattiva preparazione.
Prima di entrare in un'operazione, la maggior parte dei principianti si concentra su una cosa: direzione.
Andrà su?
Scenderà?
Ma la direzione è la variabile meno importante.

Il vero problema: nessun piano senza rischi
I trader professionisti si preparano per la perdita prima del profitto.
Definiscono:
Dimensione della posizione
Livello invalidato
Perdita massima accettabile
Orizzonte temporale
I principianti definiscono:
Prezzo di ingresso
Prezzo obiettivo
Un piano di sopravvivenza.
Gli altri piani sono fantasia.
Il mercato test di struttura, non di fiducia