Bitcoin has always followed its own rhythm—and the latest cycle is no exception. Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening and what history tells us:
1️⃣ Phase One – First Top & Shock
March 2021: Bitcoin hit a major top. Momentum overheated, retail was euphoric, RSI stretched → sharp correction followed.
December 2024: The first top of this cycle mirrored 2021. Overheated conditions, stretched RSI, sharp reset. History repeats.
2️⃣ Phase Two – Second Top & Distribution
October 2021: Second top arrived. Momentum weaker, slow bleed, emotional exhaustion.
October 2025: Same pattern. Momentum divergence, RSI weaker than the first peak, price rejection. Distribution phase confirmed.
3️⃣ Phase Three – The Boring Base
After the 2021 second top, BTC didn’t crash immediately—it compressed. RSI reset into bear-market zones, setting the stage for macro reversal.
2026: We are in the same compression phase. Weekly RSI shows exhaustion. Price is near prior ATH instead of collapsing. Boring, but structurally crucial.
4️⃣ The 30-Month Reality
2021 peak → 2024 ATH = ~30 months.
If the same timeline plays out from October 2025, major expansion won’t arrive until 2027–2028, lining up with projected $120K levels.
⚠️ Key Takeaway
Cycles have always followed this rhythm:
Euphoria → Double top distribution → Weeks of red → Momentum reset → Boring base → Delayed expansion.
Bitcoin may just be doing what it has always done. Patience now could mean massive gains later.
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