greyscale

Grayscale's Head of Research published a note arguing altcoins are near three-year lows. The same day, the company filed an S-1 amendment for a Bittensor trust.

Key Takeaways
Grayscale published is arguing altcoins offer a "potentially compelling entry point".Altcoin index down approximately 59% from 2025 highs and up only 2% from cycle lows.The research note and the TAO filing arrived on the same day, neither is coincidental.
What the Chart Shows
The altcoin price index compiled by Grayscale using FTSE Russell data, rebased to 100 at the start of 2023, tells a specific story in three acts.
Altcoins ground sideways between 100 and 150 through 2023, building a base that went largely unnoticed.2. The index surged from 150 to a peak of approximately 390 in mid-2025, a 160% rally driven by Bitcoin ETF approval momentum, institutional inflows, and the broader risk-on environment that characterized the 2024-2025 cycle.The index has declined from 390 to approximately 165 as of March 31, 2026, a 59% drawdown that has erased most of the cycle's gains and brought prices back toward the 150 level that marked the start of the bull run.

That 150 level, visible as the orange dotted line on the chart, is where Grayscale's research is pointing. Altcoins are 2% above their cycle lows and approaching the baseline from which the entire 2024-2025 rally launched. That is the floor the firm is arguing deserves attention, and it is the same floor it used to build the case in the research note published April 2.
What Grayscale Said
Zach Pandl, Grayscale's Head of Research, published a note on April 2 arguing that current altcoin prices are historically low and potentially worth acting on. The evidence he cites is specific. During March, a month defined by war-related uncertainty and a 5% decline in the S&P 500, the Grayscale Crypto Sectors Index gained approximately 4%. That divergence, Pandl argues, may reflect oversold conditions and still-positive fundamentals rather than a market in genuine distress. Since the January 2024 ETF launch, the altcoin basket he tracks is down 59% from its highs and up only 2% from cycle lows, prices near the low end of a three-year range that he describes as a potentially attractive entry point.
The note is careful in its language. "We can't be sure crypto valuations have bottomed," Pandl writes, "but recent price action looks encouraging." That qualification matters. It is the difference between a research note and a marketing document, and it is what gives the underlying data enough credibility to take seriously even while acknowledging where it comes from.
What Grayscale Did
Reading the research note and the SEC filing together makes the argument more legible than either document alone.
On April 2, the same day Pandl published his note, Grayscale filed Amendment No. 1 to its Form S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the Grayscale Bittensor Trust, a product that would give U.S. investors regulated exposure to TAO, the native token of the Bittensor AI network. The filing, Registration No. 333-292418, with Davis Polk & Wardwell as legal counsel, represents a meaningful step toward bringing a TAO investment product to U.S. markets under SEC oversight.

Grayscale does not file S-1 amendments for products it does not intend to launch. The research note argues altcoin prices are compelling. The S-1 filing is the institutional action that backs that argument with regulatory commitment rather than just words. When a firm publishes research saying an asset class is undervalued and simultaneously advances the paperwork to sell exposure to it, the research and the filing are part of the same message.
What the Data Concludes and What Could Still Go Wrong
The combined picture from Pandl's note, the FTSE Russell index data, and the TAO filing points to one conclusion: Grayscale believes altcoin prices have reached a level worth institutional positioning, and it is acting on that belief in two ways simultaneously, through public research and through regulatory filing.
The data supporting that view is specific and verifiable. The 59% drawdown from cycle highs is confirmed by FTSE Russell and Artemis data, not Grayscale-only sourcing. The S&P 500 underperformance in March is a matter of public record. The 2% above cycle lows figure places the current altcoin index at a level that has historically preceded recoveries rather than continued declines, the index touched the 150 baseline twice in 2023 and both times marked a resumption of upward momentum rather than a breakdown below it.
The counter-case is equally grounded and Pandl acknowledges it himself. The altcoin index approached the 150 level in an environment that was broadly constructive, no active war, oil below $80, institutional sentiment improving. The current environment is the opposite. An active conflict in the Middle East, oil above $100, a Fear and Greed Index pinned at 8 for a month, and a macro backdrop that has not yet found resolution are conditions under which historically low valuations can become lower still. Down 59% from highs with these macro conditions in place is not a bottom by definition, it is a level from which the market could recover or extend lower depending on variables the chart cannot resolve.
Grayscale has a direct commercial interest in altcoin prices being perceived as attractive, a fact that does not invalidate the data but does require the reader to hold both things at once. The research is positioned. The data behind it is real. Whether the floor the chart is pointing at holds depends on whether the macro environment that created it changes, and on that question, neither the research note nor the S-1 amendment has an answer.
#greyscale

7 agosto 2024

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